UVA Basketball (7-5, 0-1 ACC) hosts NC State (8-4, 1-0 ACC) on Tuesday at noon – yes, an odd start time for a weekday, but it’s New Year’s Eve.
The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
ICYMI
Forecast
- BartTorvik: Virginia 60-57, 62% win probability
- KenPom: Virginia 62-61, 56% win probability
- EvanMiya: NC State 65-64, 52% win probability
- ESPN BPI: NC State +0.9, 53.6% win probability
- Haslametrics: NC State 59-58
Video: NC State-UVA preview
Pregame
Virginia is starting Dai Dai Ames, Andrew Rohde and Isaac McKneely in the backcourt, and Jacob Cofie and Elijah Saunders in the frontcourt.
NC State is going with its four-guard lineup: Michael O’Connell, Marcus Hill, Jayden Taylor and then Dontrez Styles as the stretch four, around Brandon Huntley-Hatfield at the five.
First half
First media timeout: UVA 10, NC State 9, 14:55/1st
Interesting start to the game. Both teams are running good offense.
NC State is 4-of-7 from the floor; UVA is 5-of-6.
Four of the UVA makes are at the rim.
Second media timeout: NC State 19, UVA 13, 11:16/1st
NC State on an 8-0 run against an odd UVA lineup: Ames-Murray-McKneely-Power-Buchanan.
The last offensive possession ended with an end-of-clock airball.
The last defensive possession was Buchanan rotating late on a hard hedge, leading to a layup for Ismael Diouf.
Third media timeout: NC State 29, UVA 21, 7:06/1st
State continues to shoot the lights out: 10-of-16 from the floor, 5-of-9 from three.
Fourth media timeout: NC State 34, UVA 26, 3:33/1st
Sanchez’s stubborn insistence on playing two forwards against a four-guard lineup is killing us.
State is 12-of-20 from the floor, 6-of-11 from three, 4-of-5 at the rim.
It’s the threes that are killing us: State is 32.0 percent from three on the season.
The ball rotations are getting them open looks.
Half: NC State 39, UVA 29
NC State leads by 10, and this isn’t a good NC State team that we’re losing to by 10.
It’s a collection of cast-offs from the transfer portal and the leftovers from last year that didn’t get a lot of time.
Kevin Keatts, according to the people supposedly in the know, is a roll-the-ball-out-there coach, but he’s out-schemed Ron Sanchez by going with his four-guard lineup, and taking advantage of the mismatches to get open looks for his shooters.
Virginia is down 10 despite shooting 52 percent (13-of-25).
Just 2-of-7 from three, 6-of-10 at the rim.
The 5-of-8 on jumpers is good.
The six turnovers on 28 possessions is not.
Second half
First media timeout: NC State 43, UVA 36, 17:02/2nd
Finally, an adjustment from Sanchez. He’s trying to get the ball into the hands of Elijah Saunders, who is being guarded by State guards.
Saunders has seven points this half.
What does State do to counter?
I’m thinking: try to trap the ball out of the UVA guards’ hands.
Second media timeout: UVA 51, NC State 50, 11:06/2nd
Virginia is 7-of-9 from the floor, 3-of-5 from three and 3-of-3 at the rim in the second half.
State has cooled off from three: 1-of-6 this half.
More energy from the UVA kids on both ends.
Third media timeout: UVA 59, NC State 51, 8:01/2nd
Gotta say, Sanchez is getting the better of Keatts in the second half.
The adjustment to take advantage of the guard on the big has led to easy baskets at the rim and at three.
Virginia is 10-of-13 in the second half, 5-of-7 from three, 4-of-4 at the rim.
Fourth media timeout: UVA 68, NC State 62, 2:20/2nd
State is uglying it up with pressure and traps, as you would expect.
(I expected, but Keatts only just dialed it up.)
Defensive stops make it hard for them to do that.
Final: UVA 70, NC State 67
Virginia trailed by 14 early in the second half, led 12, then had to hold on for dear life for the 70-67 win.
UVA only scored three points, all at the line, in theby final 5:02, after going 13-of-17 from the floor in the first 15 minutes of the second half.
Good D helped: State was only 4-of-11 from the floor in the final 5:02.
The adjustment to get the ball into the post to Saunders fueled the first 15 minutes.
Saunders, who finished with 22, had 14 points in 20 second half minutes: 3-of-5 FG, 1-of-2 3FG, 7-of-8 FT.
McKneely, who finished with 14, had nine in the second half: 3-of-6 from three.
Rohde had 11 points, seven assists and one turnover in 36 minutes.
Dai Dai Ames didn’t play in the second half. Have to presume an injury of some sort.
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Chris Graham
