It might be early to say this, but today feels like a must-win for the UVA Basketball program, which is 1-3 in games against power conference foes.
The ‘Hoos (5-3) face SMU (7-2) at 2:15 p.m. ET down in Dallas.
Virginia comes in off an 87-69 loss at #13 Florida in the SEC/ACC Smackdown on Wednesday.
SMU, being a new league member, I guess, didn’t have to get squashed, instead playing a midweek game with Alabama State, which the Mustangs won, 101-72.
Getting to know: SMU
SMU averages 88.3 points per game, ranked 10th nationally, shooting 48.1 percent from the floor, 37.5 percent from three, getting a fair amount of offense in transition (20.4 percent) and offensive rebounds (10.4 percent).
The Mustangs average 1.173 points per possession, which ranks 21st nationally, per KenPom.
They’re just average defensively, allowing 1.034 points per possession, 127th nationally.
Five guys average double-figures, led by Wake Forest transfer point guard Kevin Miller (15.6 ppg, 5.8 assists/g, 41.0% FG, 28.2% 3FG).
Chuck Harris, a 6’2” senior and native of Ashburn, Va., is averaging 12.6 points per game off the bench (47.0% FG, 45.9% 3FG).
BJ Edwards, a 6’3” junior, averages 11.0 points per game (50.0% FG, 34.6% 3FG).
Samet Yigitoglu, a 7’2” freshman, has been productive early on (11.0 ppg, 6.6 rebounds/g, 1.1 blocks/g, 59.6% FG).
Oregon transfer Kario Oquendo, a 6’4” senior guard, averages 10.6 points per game (53.3% FG, 51.6% 3FG).
The other starter is 6’11” UC Santa Barbara junior transfer Yohan Traore (9.3 ppg, 5.1 rebounds/g, 46.3% FG, 29.4% 3FG).
First-year coach Andy Enfield (268-177 overall, including stops at Florida-Gulf Coast and Southern Cal) gets productivity off the bench from 6’7 UMass senior transfer Matt Cross (8.4 ppg, 7.5 rebounds/g, 50.0% FG, 36.4% 3FG) and 6’9 senior Keon Ambrose-Hylton (5.2 ppg, 47.2% FG, 28.6% 3FG).
Forecast
- ESPN Analytics: SMU +10.5, 82.4% win probability
- EvanMiya: SMU 75-66, 78.4% win probability
- KenPom: SMU 73-65, 78% win probability
- BartTorvik: SMU 71-65, 74% win probability
First half
First media timeout: UVA 8, SMU 7, 15:03/1st
Good start for the ‘Hoos. Three makes at the rim. Dai Dai Ames is 1-of-2 on midrange jumpers.
Isaac McKneely has a make on a driving layup and an assist on a dunk by Blake Buchanan.
Andrew Rohde took a high screen to the rim for a layup.
Second media timeout: SMU 15, UVA 14, 10:39/1st
I like the defense, even though SMU is 6-of-13 from the floor.
The offense is getting to the rim: 4-of-5 on shots at the rim.
I’m encouraged.
Third media timeout: SMU 22, UVA 17, 7:06/1st
A nearly three-minute scoring drought, settling for jumpers, a sloppy live-ball turnover by Rohde.
This is a critical time.
Fourth media timeout: SMU 30, UVA 22, 3:59/1st
Virginia had three makes at the rim in the first five minutes.
One since.
UVA is 2-of-9 in the midrange.
Already too many of those.
SMU is 8-of-9 at the rim.
Half: SMU 30, UVA 28
First-half analysis
Virginia was 11-of-27 (40.7%) from the floor and 5-of-9 (55.6%) from three.
After the success early getting to the rim, the ‘Hoos finished 4-of-7 at the rim.
This “new” offense doesn’t generate many open looks. A lot like the old offense.
I’d love to know what Ron Sanchez is thinking about with Samet Yigitoglu, who has 14 points on 6-of-7 shooting, with five makes at the rim, and one on a short jumper off a postup.
Tempo: 32 possessions, so, Virginia pace.
I hate this “new” offense. The productivity we’re seeing today is about what we’re going to get from it.
Second half
First media timeout: UVA 33, SMU 30, 15:56/2nd
SMU hasn’t scored since the 4:25 mark of the first half.
They’ll come back from the timeout at the free throw line, so.
They’re 0-of-6 shooting with six turnovers in the last 8:31.
Virginia has just 11 points in the same stretch on 3-of-11 shooting.
Second media timeout: UVA 38, SMU 36, 11:49/2nd
Elijah Saunders just picked up his fourth foul. Both of his second-half fouls were dumb reach-ins.
Jacob Cofie has Virginia’s last five points; he has eight points and three assists in 18 minutes off the bench.
It’ll have to be him and Blake Buchanan (two points, two boards in 17 minutes) until about the five-minute mark.
Samet Yigitoglu has three fouls.
Timeout SMU: UVA 45, SMU 38, 10:17/2nd
Personal 7-0 run by McKneely – made three and a free throw, another made three.
Final media timeout: SMU 52, UVA 49, 3:52/2nd
Four points in six-plus minutes, with SMU on the 14-4 run.
Dai Dai Ames played seven minutes in the first half, as an off-ball guard, and hasn’t played in the second half.
I have to presume that he’s dealing with some kind of illness.
Not having him is a killer.
Elijah Saunders has one point and two rebounds in 21 minutes.
Final: SMU 63, UVA 51
UVA’s last made basket was a three by Isaac McKneely with 10:19 to go.
SMU closed with a 25-6 run in the final 10:19.
Final analysis
Virginia missed its final nine shots from the floor in that 10:19 stretch, with six turnovers.
It didn’t help not having Dai Dai Ames, and with Elijah Saunders going 0-of-6 from the floor.
Isaac McKneely had 17 points (5-of-12 FG, 4-of-8 3FG), but he got no help.
Final shooting numbers:
- 16-of-49 FG
- 8-of-19 3FG
- 5-of-9 at the rim (three of the makes were in the first five minutes)
- 3-of-21 in the midrange
SMU shooting numbers:
- 21-of-49 FG
- 6-of-24 3FG
- 13-of-17 at the rim
- 2-of-8 in the midrange
Virginia continues to settle for midrange jumpers, which are the lowest-value shot in this sport.
Also, turnovers: 14 in 62 possessions.
Fourteen turnovers when you have 16 made field goals.
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Chris Graham
