Cal finished its 2025 East Coast schedule at 1-1 with its come-from-ahead 42-34 OT loss at Virginia Tech last Friday night.
The Golden Bears (5-2, 2-2 ACC) get their third visitor from the East Coast this weekend, in the form of #15 Virginia (7-1, 4-0 ACC), who at least don’t have to play out west in the old Pac-12 After Dark TV time slot.
#15 Virginia at Cal | Saturday, 3:45 p.m. | ESPN2
Series: First Meeting
Line: Virginia -4.5
Over/under: 53.5
Projected final score: Virginia 28, Cal 24
Virginia, a 4.5-point road favorite, gets the early kick – which both Duke (a 45-21 winner at Cal on Oct. 4) and UNC (who lost at Cal, 21-18, on Oct. 17) would have no doubt preferred.
This is at least a small amount of good fortune for Virginia, which has won six straight, but three of the last four have been OT wins, and the margin in the last three is six points (three, two and one).
How hard did Carla Williams have to lobby to get a 3:45 p.m. ET kick, I wonder.
I know, officially, it’s ESPN’s call.
Neither of the Left Coast games this week is being forced into the 10:30 p.m. ET window.
Pitt-Stanford gets a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ACCN.
Weird.
ESPN has #17 Cincinnati at #24 Utah at 10:15 p.m. ET, but that’s literally it.
Are they maybe trying to be fair to the East Coast teams, finally?
Getting to know: Cal D
I’m going to break contain here and start with the Cal D, which got eaten alive last week in the loss in Blacksburg, giving up 275 yards on the ground in the second half and OT.
Duke also gashed the Cal defense in its win in Berkeley earlier in the month, going for 178 yards in the ground game, while also forcing four turnovers – including three INTs thrown by true freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
You can imagine that the coaching staff has been working overtime on finding a fix to the breakdowns that Tech was able to exploit last week.
The biggest issue seemed to be whip linebacker Luke Ferrelli, who, according to data from Pro Football Focus, was dinged for five missed tackles in the run game.
Ferrelli, a 6’3”, 230-pound freshman, has been on the field for 443 snaps this season, which suggests, the fix ain’t another guy.
Expect the UVA offensive brain trust to test the weakside in the run game early and often.
ICYMI
- UVA Football: Injury and availability report for Week 10 game at Cal
- First look: Cal licking its wounds after come-from-ahead loss at Virginia Tech
- UVA Football: Details for Cal game this weekend, with a big surprise on the start time
The pass coverage is pretty good – starting with senior corner Hezekiah Masses has seven pass breakups and four INTs, and has only allowed 21 receptions on 46 pass targets on 288 coverage snaps this season, for a 38.4 NFL passer rating against.
A guy with those numbers effectively takes his part of the field out of the equation in the pass game.
The other two primaries at corner – Brent Austin (267 coverage snaps, 85.8 NFL passer rating against) and Cam Sidney (190 pass snaps, 57.0 NFL passer rating against) are also plus guys.
Those numbers might be a hint as to why it is you see teams trying to establish the run.
The Cal offense
Moving over to offense, Sagapolutele has impressed as a kid who was playing on Friday nights this time a year ago, passing for 1,983 yards and 11 TDs, with seven INTs, through eight games as a true freshman.
His top target is speedy 5’7”, 170-pound slot receiver Jacob De Jesus (54 catches/79 targets, 493 yards, three TDs), with another guy working out of the slot, 6’4”, 240-pound tight end Mason Mini, putting up nice numbers over the midde (32 catches/44 targets, 348 yards, four TDs).
Gotta watch out for big 6’4” wideout Trond Grizzell (26 catches/46 targets, 448 yards, one TD), who averages 17.2 yards per catch.
The lead tailback, 5’11”, 200-pound NC State transfer Kendrick Raphael, has run for 559 yards and eight TDs, and averages 4.2 yards per rushing attempt, doing the bulk of his damage between the tackles (341 yards, 4.4 yards per attempt).
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Chris Graham
