Tonight’s UVa.-VCU Top 25 matchup is a classic clash of styles. Virginia would love the game to be in the 50s or low 60s; VCU would prefer a game in the 80s.
Who controls the pace will determine who wins the game.
OK, so we knew that already. Who controls the pace?
I like Virginia, and here’s why: defense.
VCU of course is known for its defense, but it uses its defense to set the tempo, forcing 19.7 turnovers per game in 2012-2013. The flip side of running a press for 40 minutes is that when your opponent does beat the press, it can tend to get good shots, as was seen last year when the Rams’ opponents hit 44.4 percent from the field, just a tick off what VCU shot from the field offensively (45.0 percent).
Virginia’s defense doesn’t force turnovers (12.9 per game), but what it does force is a lot of contested shots. The Cavs’ opponents shot just 38.8 percent from the field in 2012-2013. (UVa. shot 45.7 percent from the field last season.)
One thing about a team that likes to press is that it can’t set up the press if it doesn’t get the ball to go through the net. VCU is certainly capable of putting the ball through the net on any given night, but does that happen tonight?
The bet here is that it doesn’t. Virginia has more depth than it ever has in the Tony Bennett era, going nine deep, with depth among ball-handlers (point guards Malcolm Brogdon, London Perrantes and Teven Jones, two guards Joe Harris and Justin Anderson) that it didn’t have last year.
The ball-handlers will deal with the press as well as could be expected. The D will limit the opportunities for the Ram to set up their press. The game ends up being played at the ruggedly slow pace that Bennett prefers.
Virginia wins the game, ugly, maybe, but a W is a W.
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Chris Graham
