Work with me here, because I’m trying to teach myself, on the fly, how to do a decent analytical preview for a women’s basketball game, to do justice to this weekend’s Sweet 16 game for the UVA Basketball program.
The ’Hoos (22-11), the #10 seed that had to win three games to get from the First Four to the Sweet 16, is playing #3 seed TCU (31-5).
Game Details
- #10 seed Virginia (22-11) vs. #3 seed TCU (31-5)
- Day/Time: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
The NCAA doesn’t do regions for the women’s tournament the way it does for men, so this one is officially in Regional 4.
TCU, as the 31-win team, is the big favorite – a 9.5-point favorite, per DraftKings.
Basically, TCU is better on the defensive end – seventh nationally in defensive points per possession, per data from Her Hoops Stats; Virginia is 178th.
What I find curious: TCU was 5-3 in Quad 1 games, and Virginia was 5-5 in Q1s – and against Q1s, Virginia was 6.7 points per 100 possessions better than TCU, per numbers from BartTorvik.
Keep that one under your hat.
Inside TCU Basketball
Three players average 30+ minutes per game:
- Olivia Miles, a 5’10” sixth-year senior guard, a double-digit scorer in three of her four years at Notre Dame, is the leading everything: 19.4 ppg, 7.2 rebounds/g, 6.6 assists/g, 48.0% FG, 34.5% 3FG, 4.2 FTAs/g.
- Marta Suarez, a 6’3” guard-forward, is also a sixth-year, with three years at Tennessee and two at Cal. This season: 16.8 ppg, 7.4 rebounds/g, 45.9% FG, 37.3% 3FG.
- Six-foot guard Donovyn Hunter, a junior: 10.6 ppg, 46.0% FG, 33.9% 3FG.
- I’ll throw in 6’7” center Clara Silva here: 9.3 ppg, 7.4 rebounds/g, 1.8 blocks/g, 59.8% FG.
TCU averages 14.5 makes at the rim per game, puts up a lot of twos outside of the 4.5-foot circle (13.9 per game), and shoots well from the perimeter (35.6%, 9.0 makes per game).
How our UVA team matches up
The point-guard matchup of Olivia Miles and Kymora Johnson (19.5 ppg, 4.5 rebounds/g, 5.8 assists/g, 41.3% FG, 36.1% 3FG, 4.1 FTAs/g) is must-see TV.
Both Johnson and 5’8” backcourt-mate Paris Clark (9.4 ppg, 4.7 rebounds/g, 3.0 assists/g, 42.3% FG, 32.3% 3FG) give up size to the TCU backcourt.
Virginia does have nice size across the frontline:
- 6’4 junior Tabitha Amanze: 9.4 ppg, 6.1 rebounds/g, 1.4 blocks/g, 48.2% FG
- 6’3” grad senior Romi Levy: 8.8 ppg, 4.0 rebounds/g, 41.7% FG, 31.1% 3FG
- 6’2” grad senior Sa’Myah Smith: 6.5 ppg, 5.8 rebounds/g, 45.5% FG, 20.6% 3FG
- 6’4” grad senior Caitlin Weimar: 7.7 ppg, 5.8 rebounds/g, 58.6% FG, 33.3% 3FG
Virginia averages 14.6 makes per game at the rim, shoots even more twos outside the 4.5-foot circle (19.0 per game), and is subpar from three (32.0%, 6.5 makes per game).
How Virginia wins this game
The two teams’ records have TCU with nine more wins overall, but they’re identical in Quad 1 games, and arguably, Virginia has played better in Quad 1s over the course of the season.
Attack the paint, avoid foul trouble, don’t settle, out-tough them.
Yeah, UVA can win this one.
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Chris Graham
