Scanning the 2015 NCAA Tournament brackets, I’m seeing a few upset specials that may be getting overlooked. Being that this supposed insight has no value as of about noon tomorrow, here we go.
Midwest
Don’t sleep on me: Maryland as a four seed is an intriguing matchup to me for Kentucky. The Terps (27-6) won in February over Wisconsin, and have a good mix of offense (1.084 points per possession) and defense (.947 ppp) to be able to play with the Wildcats. Dez Wells and Melo Trimble can get into the lane with anybody, and Kentucky’s shot blockers leave them susceptible to offensive rebounds. This isn’t the walkover that many assume.
Bad break in seeding: Notre Dame could be a Final Four team, but not in UK’s region. The Irish are too small and too thin to be able to give the ‘Cats any kind of sweat in an Elite Eight throwdown.
Value pick: New Mexico State as a 15? The Aggies are 89 in KenPom.com, which has them more as a 12 based on who else is around them in that part of the rankings. Kansas will win, but it may not be as easy as you would assume in a 2-15.
Low seed who could win this region: Seriously?
West
Value pick: This isn’t going to happen, but Coastal Carolina was a 16 last year and gave a top-seeded UVA team all it could handle, leading by 10 late in the first half and five at the break. This year the Chanticleers get Wisconsin, which plays the same system as Virginia, better on offense, not as good on defense.
Don’t believe the hype: Wofford has been a trendy 5-12 upset pick. The Terriers did win at NC State, but also lost at West Virginia by 33 and Duke by 29. Don’t get too excited.
Low seed who could win this region: Ohio State
South
Don’t sleep on me: San Diego State in a potential third-round game with Duke. Yes, the Aztecs have trouble scoring (1.024 ppp). But they can play D (.883 ppp, fourth in D1), and this is a veteran team that would be going up against a team whose core is a group of freshmen that would be playing in its first meaningful NCAA Tournament game.
Startling stat: Iowa State averages 14.7 seconds per offensive possession, second in D1. Yeah, wow. So maybe all the media love for the Cyclones is unconscious (or conscious?) rooting for a faster pace of play.
Speaking of fast pace of play: On the bottom half of the bracket are fellow track teams Gonzaga (17.3 seconds), Iowa (17.3 seconds), UCLA (17.5 seconds), Davidson (17.8 seconds) and SMU (18.0 seconds).
Low seed who could win this region: Davidson
East
Not easy for either of the top seeds: Villanova gets either NC State (Ws over Duke, UNC, Louisville) or LSU (two-point loss to Kentucky) in the third round, and Northern Iowa (KenPom 12) or Louisville (KenPom 18) in the Sweet Sixteen. UVA gets either Michigan State (which knocked the Cavs out of the 2014 NCAA Tournament) or Georgia (led Kentucky with four to go) in the Round of 32 and maybe Oklahoma (KenPom 9) in the Sweet Sixteen. At least they get to play close to home.
Low seed who could win this region: Michigan State
– Column by Chris Graham
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