Analysis: The numbers seem to have UVA Baseball in the 2025 NCAA Tournament

The series win at Virginia Tech would appear to be enough to get the UVA Baseball team on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.

With the series win, clinched with a 3-1 victory on Saturday, in which freshman lefty Tomas Valincius was brilliant, giving his team six and two-thirds solid innings, striking out six, walking one, and allowing one run on six hits, Virginia (32-17, 16-11 ACC) will be the six seed in this week’s ACC Tournament in Durham, which will be using a single-elimination format.

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ICYMI

• UVA Baseball: ‘Hoos close out regular season with 3-1 win at Virginia Tech

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I don’t know that a one-and-done loss or a four-day run to the tournament championship will impact UVA’s seeding much one way or the other.

My thinking here is influenced by Virginia’s average computer ranking being 37.6, which is solid three-seed territory.

For reference, the average computer rankings of the 11 ACC teams that are in the NCAA Tournament mix are:

• North Carolina (39-12, 18-11 ACC): 5.2
• Georgia Tech (39-16, 19-11 ACC): 16.3
• Florida State (37-13, 17-10 ACC): 19.0
• Duke (36-18, 17-13 ACC): 21.6
• Clemson (41-15, 18-12 ACC): 23.4
• Wake Forest (36-19, 16-14 ACC): 27.7
• NC State (33-18, 17-11 ACC): 33.6
• Louisville (35-20, 15-15 ACC): 36.9
• Virginia (32-17, 16-11 ACC): 37.6
• Miami (31-23, 15-14 ACC): 38.9
• Notre Dame (32-20, 14-16 ACC): 46.4

UNC is clearly a Top 16 national seed. Georgia Tech and Florida State are in the mix, based on their computer numbers.

Duke, Clemson and Wake look like solid twos.

NC State, surprisingly, given that the Pack has a double-bye in this week’s ACC Tournament, looks like a three, along with Louisville, which has to play on Tuesday.

I’d put Miami probably in as a three, and Notre Dame, I’m thinking, may have to win out this week to get a bid.

Getting back to Virginia, to me, the computer numbers are enough on their own to get our ‘Hoos a bid, with the recency factor – UVA has gone 12-2 since April 22 – cementing the strength of the resume.

The slight bit of pause that I have is based on the home-and-home mid-week losses to Liberty (ACR: 83.7), the home ACC series loss to Boston College (ACR: 104.6) and the home mid-week loss to Richmond (ACR: 143.0).

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ICYMI

• UVA Baseball: Another dispiriting mid-week loss for the once-mighty ‘Hoos
• UVA Baseball: ‘Hoos losing streak now at five with 5-3 midweek loss at Liberty
• UVA Baseball: Tough start for Colucci, bats silenced in 6-3 loss to BC
• Brian O’Connor on UVA Baseball loss: ‘We weren’t ready to play from the first pitch’

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All of that was before April 22; I think the average computer ranking and the strong regular-season finish will push Virginia inside the cut-off line.

Going into this week, then, if I’m Brian O’Connor, I wouldn’t mind winning a couple of games, certainly, to get Jay Woolfolk (4-2, 4.26 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) the #1 starter, and Tomas Valincius (6-1, 4.59 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) who would be my #2 going forward, some work, and to use a third game to try to figure out who my #3 might be, between Bradley Hodges (2-1, 4.88 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) and Evan Blanco (3-5, 5.92 ERA, 1.74 WHIP).

In terms of needing to win a game or two to get into an NCAA regional, though, I dunno.

I really think the issue is more between being a two seed instead of a three seed in an NCAA regional, which is really only a matter of what dugout you’re in for the opening game on Friday.