Virginia surprised everybody, maybe including themselves, even just hanging with Duke a couple of weeks back in Durham, but then winning when Reece Beekman improbably drained a three from the left corner with 1.1. seconds left, yeah, that wasn’t part of the script.
Paolo Banchero floated through 38 minutes, scoring nine points, nada in the second half.
Virginia dominated the paint, outscoring Duke 52-28.
Duke committed 15 turnovers, Virginia just five.
When you look at the stats, the bigger surprise is not that Virginia won, but that it took a last-second three for Virginia to get the win.
You know Mike Krzyzewski is using this to get his guys jacked up.
Krzyzewski used a #fakenews version of the 1983 ACC Tournament loss to Virginia to nurse a dumb grudge for decades.
He has legitimate beef this time.
The beef is with his own guys, but, doesn’t matter.
Duke is coming to JPJ on Wednesday night, and they’re going to play pissed.
Key matchup
The 6’10” Banchero (16.9 ppg, 8.4 rebounds/g, 47.1% FG, 29.9% 3FG) was held in check by his opposite number, the undersized Virginia four Jayden Gardner (15.3 ppg, 7.1 rebounds/g, 51.7% FG).
Gardner, at 6’6”, gives up four inches to Banchero, but Tony Bennett was able to neutralize the big guy early with post-to-post doubles, and Banchero’s response was to shy away from the challenge, spending the bulk of the last 25 minutes floating around the perimeter, where he isn’t nearly as effective – in addition to the 29.9 percent rate from three, Banchero is just a 41.4 percent shooter in the mid-range, according to Hoop-Math.com.
The sum effect: Banchero was 3-of-9 from the floor, 1-of-3 from three, and he took just one shot in the second half, a wild miss that hit the top of the backboard at the buzzer.
Gardner, meanwhile, led Virginia with 17 points, on 8-of-19 shooting.
In his past eight games, Gardner is averaging 18.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, shooting 51.2 percent from the floor and 96 percent (24-of-25) at the free-throw line.
Banchero, in his past five, including the loss to Virginia, is averaging 11.7 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, shooting 46 percent from the floor and just 3-of-17 (17.6 percent) from three.
The projected lottery pick will have a couple of rows of scouts in the media section at JPJ watching him Wednesday night to see if he can avenge his awful game against Gardner from Feb. 7.
No pressure. Just a few million dollars on the line.
What does Virginia do about the big Duke guards?
6’4” freshman Trevor Keels (12.0 ppg, 4.0 rebounds/g, 3.2 assists/g, 40.7% FG, 32.8% 3FG) didn’t start the first game, but he did get 27 minutes off the bench.
Keels was still coming back from an ankle injury two weeks ago. He’s fully back now, getting 34 minutes in Duke’s 88-70 win over Florida State over the weekend.
With Keels, at 6’4”, 221, Wendell Moore (13.9 ppg, 5.6 rebounds/g, 5.6 assists/g, 51.7% FG, 40.2% 3FG), who’s 6’5”, and A.J. Griffin (9.9 ppg, 3.6 rebounds/g, 50.5% FG, 48.5% 3FG) at 6’6”, Virginia has an issue, maybe two.
The first issue is just the height disparity that 5’9”-ish Kihei Clark (9.9 ppg, 4.1 assists/g, 39.8% FG, 36.4% 3FG) has matching up against bigger guards.
Virginia managed fine in the win in Cameron – Keels had 12 points, but was just 3-of-11 from the floor, 1-of-3 from three, and got his points at the line, where he went 6-of-7, but Moore had just nine points on 3-of-8 shooting, 1-of-5 from three, and Griffin had two points on 1-of-7 shooting, 0-of-2 from three.
6’1” sophomore Jeremy Roach (7.3 ppg, 3.5 assists/g, 36.5% FG, 31.3% 3FG) started in place of Keels and had a workmanlike seven points and four assists in the first matchup.
Beekman (7.7 ppg, 5.0 assists/g, 43.8% FG, 32.7% 3FG), at 6’3″, a leading candidate for ACC Defensive Player of the Year, only logged 25 minutes in the win at Duke because of foul trouble, but three of his four were all-time cheapies, so that was likely an outlier.
Beekman gets Moore, meaning Clark will have to log more minutes against a bigger, bulkier Keels, which is the one issue for Bennett.
The other: the status of 6’4” guard Armaan Franklin (11.6 ppg, 40.2% FG, 25.2% 3FG), who only got 16 minutes in the 74-71 win at Miami on Saturday with foul trouble and a toe issue.
The foul trouble washed away once the final buzzer sounded; the toe issue could still be lingering, though we won’t know for sure until we get there Wednesday night to see how he’s doing in pregame warmups.
Virginia needs Franklin if, for nothing else, his defense.
The bench is rather thin in general, but particularly on the perimeter. Kody Stattmann (3.2 ppg, 14.4 minutes/g) is coming off a nice performance in the win at Miami (eight points, 3-of-5 shooting, 27 minutes), but after that, it’s 6’2” sophomore walk-on Malachi Poindexter (0.9 ppg, 7.5 minutes/g) and maybe 6’6” freshman Taine Murray (2.3 ppg, 8.1 minutes/g), who has played a total of 58 minutes in ACC games, just three minutes in the past eight games.
The bigs
The Virginia tandem of 6’11” sophomore Kadin Shedrick (7.1 ppg, 5.4 rebounds/g, 2.1 blocks/g, 62.3% FG) and 7’1” junior Francisco Caffaro (4.7 ppg, 4.4 rebounds/g, 53.6% FG) had big nights in the Feb. 7 win.
Shedrick had 16 points on 8-of-8 shooting and six rebounds in 24 minutes off the bench. Caffaro had eight points and 3-of-6 shooting (2-of-2 at the line) and six rebounds in 16 minutes.
But their opposite numbers also had nice nights down in Durham. 7’1” sophomore Mark Williams (10.6 ppg, 6.8 rebounds/g, 71.7% FG) had 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting (6-of-7 at the line) in 19 minutes, and 6’9” senior Theo John (3.1 ppg, 2.8 rebounds/g, 12.3 minutes/g) had five points on 2-of-2 shooting (1-of-2 at the line) in 14 minutes.
Both groups had some issues with foul trouble – both Caffaro and Williams had four each.
Bennett was able to fill in Caffaro’s minutes with the big effort from Shedrick. Krzyzewski ended up going small-ball for seven minutes with Banchero at the five spot.
The stakes
Duke (23-4, 13-3 ACC) has an ACC Tournament double-bye sewn up, and is playing to secure a possible #1 seed in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Virginia (17-10, 11-6 ACC) would be NIT-bound if the regular season were to be over today.
The ‘Hoos have three Quad 1 wins – the one over Duke, the one on Saturday at Miami, and a neutral-court win over Providence in November – but the computers, for whatever reason, are haters.
Virginia needs, at the least, to get to 20 wins, not because 20 is a magic number, but because it would be three more wins.
And, yes, it would help if a second win over Duke were to be one of those three.
The margin for error with a loss is practically nil. It might take wins over Florida State and Louisville to close the regular season and then two wins in Brooklyn, and even then, it would be an anxiety-ridden Selection Sunday for the good guys.
Bottom line: it’s an opportunity.
Story by Chris Graham
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