Duke is 5-4 overall, which screams – .500 team! But the Blue Devils are 4-1 in the ACC, and with just the one conference loss, is, thus, in the thick of the race for one of the two spots in the ACC Championship Game.
How real are the Dookies? Their ACC wins include NC State, which beat Virginia in a nonconference game in Week 2, Cal, a 45-21 win out west, and they won on a two-point conversion at Clemson on Nov. 1.
And also had the doors blown off by Illinois at home, lost at Tulane, who they stole their QB, Darian Mensah, from, and this past weekend, got beat by UConn, which is, yes, 7-3 this season, but the losses include Syracuse, Delaware and Rice.
Not impressed there with them even being competitive with UConn.
Vegas, though, is impressed enough – the oddsmakers have Duke as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday in the matchup with the ‘Hoos (8-2, 5-1 ACC), who are coming off a loss themselves, a frustrating 16-9 setback to Wake Forest last week.
The Duke offense
This Duke team can move the ball – 452.4 yards per game, ranking third in the ACC, with Mensah putting up video-game numbers: 310.4 yards per game passing, with 24 TDs and just four INTs.
His 2,794 passing yards ranks fourth nationally, the 24 TDs is tied for fourth, his 115.5 NFL passer rating is second.
The O line generally does a good job keeping him upright – Mensah faces pressure on 29.3 percent of his dropbacks, which ranks in the top 40 percent of QBs with a minimum of 100 dropbacks.
He has been sacked 18 times on his 103 pressure dropbacks, for a pressure-to-sack rate of 17.5, which is also top 40 percent nationally, in a bad way.
And when opponents get pressure on him, he can be very average – 46.9 percent completion rate, 79.2 NFL passer rating.
UConn sacked Mensah twice last week, and on his 10 dropbacks with pressure, Mensah was 4-of-8 passing for 30 yards, an INT and a 19.8 NFL passer rating.
The top passing-game targets are:
- Wideout Cooper Barkate: The Harvard transfer has 50 catches on 73 targets for 824 yards, 16.5 yards per catch, and five TDs.
- Slot receiver Que’Sean Brown: The junior slot receiver has 42 catches on 57 targets for 584 yards, 13.9 yards per catch, and three TDs.
- Wideout Sahmir Hagans: The fifth-year senior has 29 catches on 39 targets for 338 yards, 11.7 yards per catch, and five TDs.
- Wideout Antrel Anthony: The Oklahoma transfer has 25 catches on 32 targets for 238 yards, 9.5 yards per catch, and five TDs.
- Tight end Jeremiah Hasley: The junior has 17 catches on 22 targets for 226 yards, 13.3 yards per catch, and a TD.
- Tight end Landen King: The Utah transfer has only, in a manner of speaking, 11 catches on 13 targets, but four are for TDs.
Three solid running backs in the backfield:
- The lead back is true freshman Nate Sheppard, who has 657 yards and seven TDs, and averages 6.6 yards per carry.
- The backups: Appalachian State transfer Anderson Castle (362 yards, 5.5 yards/carry, six TDs) and fifth-year senior Jacquez Moore (192 yards, 4.9 yards/carry, one TD).
The Duke D/special teams
The D is the problem area – the defense gives up 29.1 points per game (13th in the ACC) and 407.0 yards per game (also 13th in the ACC).
And it’s equal-opportunity bad – 12th in rushing defense (137.9 yards per game), 14th in pass defense (269.1 yards per game) and 16th in pass-defense efficiency (148.5 NCAA passer rating).
Watch out for:
- Senior edge rusher Vincent Anthony Jr. (20 QB pressures, seven sacks).
- Senior edge rusher Wesley Williams (27 QB pressures, three sacks).
- Sophomore linebacker Luke Mergott (34 run-game tackles).
- Junior safety DaShawn Stone (33 run-game tackles).
- Utah State transfer cornerback Jaiden Francois (32 run-game tackles).
- Sam Houston State transfer safety Caleb Weaver (31 run-game tackles).
- Junior cornerback Moussa Kane (two INTs, 46.7 NFL passer rating against).
- Senior cornerback Chandler Rivers (one INT, six PBUs, 82.2 NFL passer rating against).
Special teams
- Sophomore punter Kade Reynoldson averages 43.9 yards per punt.
- Senior placekicker Todd Pelino is 10-of-15 on field-goal tries – 5-of-5 inside the 40, 5-of-10 from 40-plus.
- Pelino, as the primary kickoff specialist, has 21 touchbacks on 41 kickoffs.
- Que’Sean Brown has a 78-yard punt-return TD.
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Chris Graham
