UVA Basketball: What the algorithms say about the 2025-2026 season

I like the UVA Basketball team that I saw play Villanova in the exhibition game at JPJ last week. There’s work to still do – 18 turnovers is way too many, too many midrange jumpers, the interior defense was soft.

Here on the eve of the 2025-2026 season, I wondered what the predictive algorithms had to say about how things are going to go for our ‘Hoos.

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ICYMI

• UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos hold off Villanova, 75-72, in final dress rehearsal

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For starters, KenPom: 18-13, 9-9 ACC (seventh).

I don’t like this rendering, personally.

Duke, per KenPom, is projected at 24-7, 14-4 ACC, to finish first in the conference.

Louisville (23-8, 13-5 ACC), Clemson (21-9, 12-6 ACC), UNC (21-10, 11-7 ACC), NC State (19-10, 11-7 ACC), SMU (20-11, 10-8 ACC) and Wake Forest (19-11, 10-8 ACC) are ahead of us there.

KenPom has Virginia 59th nationally, one spot ahead of first-year coach Ryan Odom’s old team, VCU, which is pegged at 60th.

BartTorvik likes us a little better, projecting a 21-10, 11-7 ACC, which places us fourth in the ACC and 33rd nationally.

EvanMiya has Virginia 46th nationally, seventh in the ACC.

Haslametrics has us 68th nationally, ninth in the ACC.

Neither of those does projected final records.

Based on the recruiting and the (one, to date) eye test, I like this team better than any of these.