Aside from the obvious – Barry Bonds (fourth all-time in wins above replacement, at 162.8), Roger Clemens (eighth, 139.2 WAR), Alex Rodriguez (16th, 117.4 WAR) and Pete Rose (67th, 79.6 WAR) – who are the biggest omissions from the Baseball Hall of Fame?
I’ll stall to give you a moment to muse on that one.
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As we think things through, let’s put a couple of obvious guys either still playing or just waiting out the five years who are high on the all-time WAR list in the Hall.
Starting with Albert Pujols (29th, 101.2) – 703 homers, 2,218 RBIs, 3.384 hits, .296 BA/.918 OPS.
Fun stat with Pujols: he had 88.7 WAR in his 12 seasons in St. Louis, just 12.5 WAR in his 10 seasons with the Los Angeles Angels.
Odd stat there: his last season in St. Louis, in 2022, after the failed 10-year run in LA, saw Pujols hit .270 with an .895 OPS, with 24 homers and 68 RBIs.
He only hit .270 or better twice in LA (2012, 2014), and his last year with at least 24 homers was 2016.
Pujols is a first-ballot guy in 2027.
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And then: Zack Greinke (73rd, 77.4 WAR), who is eligible in 2028.
He went out with a 2-15 record in 2023; not sure if there’s a pitcher in the Hall with a 2-15 season on the ledger, but that shouldn’t be disqualifying.
(He was also 6-24 over his final two seasons, both with Kansas City. Which was so bad in 2022 and 2023 that he was 6-24, and that was worth 3.7 WAR. Suggesting that a replacement-level pitcher would have been 2-28 over those 30 decisions.)
Greinke won 225 games, and his career WAR, peak seven-year WAR and WAR per 162 games are all HOF standard.
He may not be a first-ballot guy, but he’s in before Year 5, at the latest.
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Miguel Cabrera (128th, 67.2 WAR) could be, but won’t be, an interesting case.
He has the counting numbers (511 homers, 3,174 hits, .306 BA/.901 OPS), but the 3.9 WAR/162 stands out.
The average HOF first baseman averaged 4.8 WAR/162.
The counting numbers get him in, probably first ballot, in 2028.
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Next, the active guys: Mike Trout (49th, 87.4 WAR), Clayton Kershaw (64th, 80.6 WAR), Justin Verlander (65th, 80.2 WAR), Max Scherzer (77th, 76.7 WAR), Mookie Betts (90th, 73.1 WAR), Aaron Judge (201st, 59.4 WAR), Shohei Ohtani (330th, 49.5).
All of these are first-ballot guys, when the time comes.
Trout, beset by injuries the past five years, has a modest 15.2 WAR since 2019, his last MVP season (7.9 WAR).
Kershaw has 220 wins and three Cy Youngs; Verlander, 263 wins and three Cy Youngs; Scherzer, 220 wins and three Cy Youngs.
Betts is in the midst of his worst statistical season in 2025 – .246 BA/.687 OPS, 13 homers, 31 extra-base hits in 522 plate appearances – and he’s still at 2.8 WAR, because of his defense (1.8 dWAR in 2025).
Judge is averaging 8.7 WAR per 162 games, which is the Trout average per 162.
For perspective, Bonds, fourth all-time, averaged 8.8 WAR/162, and Willie Mays, fifth all-time, averaged 8.4.
Ted Williams, 14th all-time, averaged 8.6.
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Ohtani is the unicorn here.
On offense, he’s averaging 5.7 WAR/162, with 269 homers, and a .282 BA/.955 OPS.
As a pitcher, he averages 5.3 WAR/162, with two double-digit-win seasons (2022, 2023), and his 2022 with the Angels (15-9, 2.33 ERA, 6.2 WAR) was thisclose to being a Cy Young year – he was second in WAR among AL pitchers in 2022, ahead of the Cy Young winner that year, Verlander, while hitting 34 homers with a .273 BA and .875 OPS.
You often hear Ohtani compared to Babe Ruth.
Ruth was a 10.5 WAR/162 guy on offense, and a 4.5 WAR/162 guy as a pitcher, with an 8.8 WAR season (23-12, 1.75 ERA, in 1916) and a 6.6 WAR season (24-13, 2.01 ERA, in 1917).
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Active guys who are close: Paul Goldschmidt (150th, 64.1 WAR), Freddie Freeman (157th, 63.2 WAR), Manny Machado (175th, 61.7 WAR), Nolan Arenado (223rd, 57.6), Jose Ramirez (228th, 57.0).
Goldschmidt should be in, probably not first ballot, but it shouldn’t take him 10 tries, either.
His career WAR is right at the HOF standard for a first baseman, and his seven-year peak WAR and WAR/162 are slightly over the standard.
Freeman is … close: the HOF standard for a first baseman is 65.0 career, so he’s not far off that; his average per 162 games is right at the 4.8 standard.
He’s in.
If Machado, who is still just 32, can put up a few more good WAR years (he’s already at 4.0 WAR in 2025), he’s a gimme.
Arenado is probably there, with a 44.2 seven-year peak WAR (standard at third: 43.4) and 5.2 WAR/162 (standard at third: 5.1).
Ramirez, like Machado, still just 32, has the seven-year peak covered at third, and his 5.9 WAR/162 is well above the HOF standard at third (5.1).
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Alright, to the main event: the guys who aren’t in, but maybe should be.
Again, aside from the obvious – Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, Rose – the first guy is MAGA assclown Curt Schilling (68th, 79.5 WAR).
Schilling won 216 games; his 79.5 career WAR outpaces the 72.9 career WAR standard for HOF starting pitchers, and his 5.4 WAR/162 far outpaces the 4.5 WAR/162 HOF average.
Granted, he’s an assclown, and I wonder if there’s any question about his big numbers late-career – he had 41.1 WAR from his age-34 season to his final year, at age-40, in 2007.
Late-career success in the ‘aughts was often a signal of PED use (see: Clemens, who had 57.9 career WAR after his age-34 season, and Bonds, who had 62.9 career WAR after his age-34 season).
I’m already saying that the PED guys who were the best of their generation should be in, so whatever the case is with Schilling, again, an assclown, put his dumb ass in.
Next up: gotta go with Lou Whitaker (84th, 75.1 WAR).
His career WAR is better than the average for a HOF second baseman (69.5), and his 5.1 WAR/162 is right on target.
Three Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, five All-Star Game appearances, 2,369 career hits.
I don’t get him not being in already.
And then, another second sacker: Bobby Grich (97th, 71.1 WAR).
His career WAR, like Whitaker’s, is above the HOF standard for second basemen, and his seven-year peak and WAR/162 (5.7) are above standard as well.
Four Gold Gloves, one Silver Slugger, six All-Star Games.
Another one that I don’t get.
One more here: Manny Ramirez (109th, 69.3 WAR).
Ramirez has the taint of PEDs on him, which is odd to me that he does, and David Ortiz (256th, 55.0 WAR), doesn’t.
Ramirez had 555 homers, a .312 career BA and .996 career OPS, and his WAR numbers are clearly good enough – the 69.3 career WAR outpaces the 65.3 career WAR for leftfielders, and his 4.9 WAR/162 outpaces the 4.8 WAR/162 for leftfielders.
If you’re going to put a PED guy like Ortiz (25.1 career WAR past his age-34 season) in, Ramirez (14.4 career WAR past age-34) should be a gimme.
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Guys who you would think could and maybe should be in, but I can see why they’re not: we’ll start with Rafael Palmeiro (95th, 71.9 WAR).
Palmeiro will be the only guy in the 500-homer, 3,000-hit club to not get in, and it’s largely because of his association with the ‘aughts PED scandal, but when you look at his numbers, there’s also a bit of him being a compiler to his numbers.
He only had 22.2 WAR from his age-34 season to retirement, but in those years, he had 255 homers and 1,045 hits.
Palmeiro’s career WAR at 71.9 surpasses the HOF standard for first basemen (65.0), but his seven-year peak (38.9) was below standard (42.0), and his average WAR/162 (4.1) was well below standard (4.8).
The argument can be made with him that PEDs kept him around long enough to put up the counting numbers that are the entirety of his case.
Bonds, Clemens and A-Rod were all Hall guys pre-PEDs; Palmeiro was good, really good, but not necessarily great.
Another guy to detail here: Carlos Beltran (105th, 70.0).
You’re to believe that Beltran isn’t in because of the Houston Astros cheating scandal, but it’s more because, like Palmeiro, Beltran was a compiler.
He had 16.2 WAR post-34, but in that time, he hit 184 of his 435 homers, and had 1,073 of his 2,725 hits.
The killer in his stats: 4.4 WAR/162, well below the 5.4 average for HOF centerfielders.
Final guy: Dwight Evans (128th, 67.2 WAR).
Good offensive numbers (385 homers, .272 BA/.840 OPS), eight Gold Gloves.
It’s just, again, he was a bit of a compiler – as is evidenced by his 4.2 WAR/162 (average for a HOF rightfielder: 4.9).
Close, but like the others in this part of the analysis, no cigar.
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Chris Graham
