NC State gets a third shot at Virginia, which beat the Pack in Raleigh, 76-61, in January, and then dominated State in a 90-61 win in Charlottesville a couple weeks ago.
Split the difference, and this one would be 83-61 ’Hoos, right?
Not how it works.
They play the games for a reason.
Game Details
- NC State (20-12, 9-10 ACC, NET: 55) vs. Virginia (27-4, 15-3 ACC, NET: 13)
- Day/Time: Thursday, noon ET
- TV: ESPN
Forecast
- KenPom: Virginia 79-75
- BartTorvik: Virginia 78-74
Looking at the analytics, you can see why this is a bad matchup for NC State, which isn’t all that good defending the paint or the three-point line, and isn’t a good rebounding team on either end.
The State defense, in Year 1 of the Will Wade era, is predicated on forcing turnovers, and his offense is adept – as in, Top 10 nationally adept – and not turning the ball over.
Virginia, in the first two matchups, was able, with its seven-footers on the back line, Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso, to take away the dribble penetration of State’s guards that sets up so much of the offense for the Pack.
Wade has the evening and overnight to figure out solutions.
Archives: UVA 76, NC State 61 (Jan. 3)
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos rebound from three-OT loss at Tech, defeat NC State, 76-61
- UVA Basketball: Virginia blows out NC State, 76-61, in Saturday ACC matinee
- Notebook: Ryan Odom talks with the media after UVA Basketball win
Archives: UVA 90, NC State 61 (Feb. 24)
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos humble Will Wade, NC State, back to the Stone Age
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos complete dominant sweep of NC State, 90-61
- Scott German: Will Wade proclaims Virginia ‘Final Four’ team after streamrolling
NC State rotation
- 6’6” senior Darrion Williams: 14.0 ppg, 4.8 rebounds/g, 41.2% FG, 38.8% 3FG
- 6’6” senior Qadir Copeland: 13.7 ppg, 6.6 assists/g, 49.6% FG, 40.4% 3FG, 5.3 FTAs/g
- 6’9” senior Ven-Allen Lubin: 13.7 ppg, 7.1 rebounds/g, 68.4% FG, 27.3% 3FG
- 6’5” sophomore Paul McNeil: 13.5 ppg, 42.9% FG, 41./9% 3FG
- 6’2” senior Tre Holloman: 9.3 ppg, 42.0% FG, 39.8% 3FG
- 6’6” freshman Matt Abel: 8.8 ppg, 41.4% FG, 35.4% 3FG
Virginia rotation
- 6’9” freshman Thijs de Ridder: 15.9 ppg, 6.3 rebounds/g, 51.3% FG, 34.1% 3FG
- 6’5” senior Malik Thomas: 12.1 ppg, 4.1 rebounds/g, 40.6% FG, 33.9% 3FG
- 6’6” junior Sam Lewis: 10.4 ppg, 3.6 rebounds/g, 45.0% FG, 36.9% 3FG
- 5’10” freshman Chance Mallory: 9.6 ppg, 3.8 rebounds/g, 3.5 assists/g, 43.3% FG, 34.3% 3FG
- 6’3” senior Jacari White: 8.9 ppg, 45.0% FG, 43.4% 3FG
- 7’0” freshman Johann Grunloh: 7.7 ppg, 5.5 rebounds/g, 2.4 blocks/g, 52.9% FG, 35.0% 3FG
- 7’0” senior Ugonna Onyenso: 6.4 ppg, 4.9 rebounds/g, 2.6 blocks/g, 54.9% FG, 28.1% 3FG
- 6’4” senior Dallin Hall: 5.9 ppg, 4.3 assists/g, 42.1% FG, 34.1% 3FG
- 6’7” senior Devin Tillis: 4.8 ppg, 40.8% FG, 38.3% 3FG
Analytics: NC State vs. UVA
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Virginia offense: 1.217 PPP (34)
NC State defense: 1.047 PPP (84)
NC State offense: 1.244 PPP (18)
Virginia defense: 0.965 PPP (16)
Rebounds
Offensive-Virginia: 38.2% (6)
Defensive-NC State: 69.6% (184)
Offensive-NC State: 28.5% (253)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.3% (96)
Turnover rate
Virginia offense: 15.9% (132)
NC State defense: 18.3% (90)
NC State offense: 13.1% (7)
Virginia defense: 15.8% (236)
Shooting zones-Virginia offense vs. NC State defense
Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics
Virginia in the paint: 16.5/29.1, 56.8%
Virginia threes: 10.1/28.5, 35.5%
Virginia FTs: 20.6 FTA/g, 71.8%
NC State in the paint: 15.1/27.5, 54.9%
NC State threes: 9.2/26.4, 35.0%
NC State FTs: 21.4 FTA/g
Shooting zones-NC State offense vs. Virginia defense
Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics
NC State in the paint: 16.8/29.6, 56.8%
NC State threes: 10.3/27.0, 38.0%
NC State FTs: 21.1 FTA/g, 76.0%
Virginia in the paint: 13.8/28.9, 47.7%
Virginia threes: 6.8/22.2, 30.5%
Virginia FTs: 19.5 FTA/g
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Chris Graham
