White House ’08: McCain leads in Va., race tied nationally

Analysis by Chris Graham
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John McCain has a slight lead in Virginia, but Barack Obama has drawn even nationwide after McCain’s Republican National Convention bounce.

That is the finding of Rasmussen Reports, which has Obama and McCain even at 48 percent of the national vote in its daily tracking poll while giving McCain a narrow 49 percent-to-47 percent lead in Virginia.

The lead in Virginia for McCain is within the poll’s margin of error, as it has been for several months now. McCain and Obama have not been separated by more than three points since March.

McCain’s lead is based in large part on his showing among independent voters. McCain leads Obama among independents by a 50 percent-to-39 percent margin.

Trends
– Florida Tied: Rasmussen has Obama and McCain tied in the battleground state of Florida at 48 percent each. Obama’s improved showing there is based in large part on his showing among independents. Obama leads McCain among independent voters by a 54 percent-to-37 percent gap.

– McCain surging in Ohio: Thought to be a battleground, Ohio seems to be trending decisively to McCain. McCain leads Obama in Ohio by a 51 percent-to-44 percent margin.