The UVA Baseball team that is 30-16 overall, 14-10 in the ACC – which still gives the ‘Hoos a shot at a double-bye in next week’s ACC Tournament – feels like a #2 NCAA Tournament seed to me.
The #60 RPI, though, screams, not making the field.
I’m not sure how to reconcile what they’ve been able to do, especially of late, winning 10 of their last 11, with the data point that everybody is familiar with.
It might be because, RPI is just one of the data points that the NCAA committee folks use.
ICYMI
And in fact, of the 10 algorithms that the committee uses, the RPI rating is very much the outlier.
Virginia’s composite ranking in the 10 is 39.2, which is still not #2 regional seed territory, but is in the field territory, and really, once you’re in, there’s no difference between being a #2 and a #3, other than which dugout you sit in for the opening game.
The #21 ranking in the Warren Nolan ELO is one of three of the 10 that has Virginia in the top 32 nationally, with a fourth (Massey) currently placing the Cavaliers just outside (at 34).
Looking at the week-by-week, the rough stretch was obviously the seven-day period between March 19 and March 25 that saw UVA lose five straight – mid-week games to Richmond and Liberty, and a three-game series at home against Duke.
Virginia’s average computer ranking dropped from 33rd to 78th during that stretch.
The 10-1 stretch that the ‘Hoos are on now has raised the profile back in shouting distance of an NCAA bid, but there’s still obvious work to do.
The regular season concludes this weekend with a three-game series at Virginia Tech (29-22, 11-16 ACC, average computer ranking: 54).
Two of three might be enough to punch a ticket.
Since I know you’re thinking, is it possible we could get a regional in Charlottesville, meh.
Sweep Tech, win out in Charlotte next week, you’re talking a 16-1 or 17-1 finish, an average computer ranking probably in the low 20s.
Possibly?
I wouldn’t bank on it, is what I’m getting at.
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Chris Graham
