Six weeks to Selection Sunday: Reviewing the resumes for top ACC contenders

The ACC got just four NCAA Tournament bids in 2025, after getting four in 2024, and five in 2022 and 2023.

Remember 2019? Man, those were the days – three #1 seeds!

Ahem.

Today, we’ll begin the countdown to Selection Sunday with a look at the resumes of our top contenders.

Key

Quad 1: Home (1-30), Neutral (1-50), Away (1-75)
Quad 2: Home (31-75), Neutral (51-100), Away (76-135)

The nine metrics: NET, RPI, ELO, KPI, Strength of Record, Wins Above Bubble, KenPom, Torvik, BPI

Locks (5)

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Duke (20-1, 9-0 ACC)

Quad 1: 9-1
Quad 2: 4-0
Quad 3-4: 7-0

Average computer ranking: 2.7
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 1 seed

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Virginia (18-3, 7-2 ACC)

Quad 1: 4-2
Quad 2: 4-1
Quad 3-4: 10-0

Average computer ranking: 18.4
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 5 seed

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Louisville (15-6, 5-4 ACC)

Quad 1: 3-5
Quad 2: 4-1
Quad 3-4: 8-0

Average computer ranking: 23.0
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 6 seed

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North Carolina (17-4, 5-3 ACC)

Quad 1: 4-3
Quad 2: 1-1
Quad 3-4: 12-0

Average computer ranking: 24.9
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 6 seed

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Clemson (18-4, 8-1 ACC)

Quad 1: 2-3
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3-4: 10-0

Average computer ranking: 26.4
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 6 seed

Should be in (2)

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NC State (16-6, 7-2 ACC)

Quad 1: 2-5
Quad 2: 8-0
Quad 3-4: 6-1 (Quad 3 loss: Georgia Tech)

Average computer ranking: 31.3
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 8 seed

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SMU (15-6, 4-4 ACC)

Quad 1: 3-5
Quad 2: 3-1
Quad 3-4: 9-0

Average computer ranking: 34.4
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 9 seed

Work to do (3)

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Miami (17-5, 6-3 ACC)

Quad 1: 2-3
Quad 2: 3-1
Quad 3-4: 12-1 (Quad 3 loss: Florida State)

Average computer ranking: 47.8

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Cal (15-6, 4-5 ACC)

Quad 1: 3-4
Quad 2: 1-2
Quad 3-4: 11-0

Average computer ranking: 52.4

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Virginia Tech (16-7, 5-5 ACC)

Quad 1: 2-5
Quad 2: 5-1
Quad 3-4: 9-1 (Quad 3 loss: Stanford)

Average computer ranking: 53.2