UVA Basketball goes out of conference on Saturday for a game akin to a second-round NCAA Tournament matchup, at a neutral site (Nashville) against a Big Ten team (Ohio State).
The value to playing this game in mid-February, vis-à-vis playing it in November or December, not even comparable.
And as I say that, right now, both ESPN and CBS have Ohio State (16-8, 8-6 Big Ten) in the First Four Out right now, if that tells you how big a game this is for the Buckeyes – in need of a Quad 1 win despite a NET at 40.
Ohio State is 1-7 in Quad 1s, and has an average computer ranking at 44.4, so, yeah, I can see it.
Being a Big Ten school, they have other Quad 1s upcoming – at Michigan State (Feb. 22), at Iowa (Feb. 25), home against Indiana (March 7).
They could probably use two or three wins there, starting tomorrow night in Music City.
The rotation
Bruce Thornton, a 6’2” senior combo guard, has been a double-digit scorer for all four of his years in Columbus – 2025-2026: 19.3 ppg, 5.3 rebounds/g, 3.8 assists/g, 54.7% FG, 38.5% 3FG, 4.8 FTAs/g, 36.1 minutes/g.
That minutes per game: that’s a lot of run.
With John Mobley, a 6’2” sophomore (15.1 ppg, 2.8 assists/g, 42.2% FG, 40.0% 3FG), that makes for a dangerous duo in the backcourt.
Devin Royal, at 6’6”, 230, is tough around the rim (72.1% FG inside the circle, on 2.7 attempts/g) – 2025-2026: 14.0 ppg, 5.7 rebounds/g, 49.6% FG, 30.3% 3FG.
Also be on the lookout for:
- seven-footer Christoph Tilly (11.8 ppg, 4.8 rebounds/g, 46.4% FG, 22.9% 3FG, 5.1 FTAs/g).
- 6’8” freshman Amare Bynum: 9.2 ppg, 4.5 rebounds/g, 48.1% FG, 25.0% 3FG
Analytics: Ohio State offense vs. UVA defense
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Ohio State: 1.223 PPP (22)
Virginia: 0.961 PPP (17)
Twos
Ohio State: 58.8% (17)
Virginia: 45.2% (11)
Threes
Ohio State: 34.1% (176)
Virginia: 29.4% (13)
Rebounds
Offensive-Ohio State: 32.9% (109)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.1% (100)
Turnover rate
Ohio State: 15.5% (83)
Virginia: 16.2% (230)
Analytics: UVA offense vs. Ohio State defense
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Virginia: 1.214 PPP (30)
Ohio State: 1.037 PPP (81)
Twos
Virginia: 55.8% (54)
Ohio State: 51.7% (177)
Threes
Virginia: 35.5% (85)
Ohio State: 30.9% (33)
Rebounds
Offensive-Virginia: 39.8% (3)
Defensive-Ohio State: 68.8% (197)
Turnover rate
Virginia: 16.4% (223)
Ohio State: 19.7% (40)
Game Details
Virginia (21-3, 10-2 ACC, NET: 18) vs. Ohio State (16-8, 8-6 Big Ten, NET: 40)
Day/Time: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
TV: Fox (Gus Johnson & Jim Jackson)
Forecast
KenPom: Virginia 76-71
BartTorvik: Virginia 75-70
ESPN BPI: Virginia +2.5
UVA Basketball archives
- UVA Basketball: Florida State dictated, but couldn’t finish off the upset
- UVA Basketball: Virginia grinds out win against tough Syracuse team
- UVA Basketball: They should have done the Tony Bennett thing at the Pitt game
- UVA Basketball: Still counts, but Boston College made that one ugly
- ‘Hoos 100, Notre Dame 97: Odom, Virginia learn how to win by going small
- UVA Basketball: Carolina attacked the paint, ‘Hoos had no response
- UVA Basketball: Virginia slugs out 72-68 win at SMU to improve to 16-2
- UVA Basketball: McKneely goes for 23, but ‘Hoos get the Top 25 road win
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos clamp down on D on Stanford in 70-55 win
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos stifle Cal with gritty second half D, win 84-60
- UVA Basketball: Virginia blows out NC State, 76-61, in Saturday ACC matinee
- UVA Basketball: Hokies ride advantage at stripe to upset of #21 ‘Hoos
Support AFP
Share
Chris Graham
