Virginia, fresh off a dominant week – double-digit home wins over Cal and Stanford – gets its biggest test to date, on the road at #19 Louisville, on Tuesday.
Louisville (12-4, 2-2 ACC, NET: 18) has played a rugged schedule – six Quad 1 games already, with a 2-4 record in those – the wins over Indiana on a neutral court and at Cal; the losses at Stanford, Arkansas and Tennessee and to Duke at home.
The KFC Yum! Center is a tough place for visiting teams to play – it’s the second-largest arena in D1, with a home-court advantage, per KenPom, measuring to +3.3 points.
It wasn’t all that tough there for a while; before Pat Kelsey took over last year, Louisville had stumbled through the end of the Rick Pitino era, getting just one NCAA Tournament berth, in 2019, in the first year of Chris Mack, who was fired in 2022 in the midst of a 13-19 season, to be replaced by Kenny Payne, who was 4-28 and 8-24 in his two years at the helm.
Kelsey got the ship righted quickly, going 27-8, 18-2 in the ACC, last season, and Louisville went into the 2025-2026 season with a raft of expectations.
I’d say that 12-4, 2-2 in the ACC, is more than a bit of a disappointment to this point, though we’ve got an eternity left in the current campaign.
Rotation
I usually start the breakdown of the other team with the leading scorer, but for obvious reasons, we’ll focus at the outset on one Isaac McKneely, a three-year guy at Virginia, who was the leading scorer for last year’s 15-17 team, scoring 14.4 points per game, on 43.9 percent shooting, including 42.1 percent from three.
McKneely, a 6’4” senior, isn’t the first option on the offensive end for the Cardinals, and I assumed that would make him more efficient in terms of his shooting numbers.
Which hasn’t been the case: 11.4 points per game, 41.3 percent shooting overall, 37.9 percent from three.
Still good numbers, just not what I’d expected.
Kelsey will throw a nine-man rotation at you, starting with the go-to guys, guards Ryan Conwell (19.9 ppg, 40.8% FG, 37.3% 3FG, 5.4 FTAs/g) and Mikel Brown Jr. (16.6 ppg, 5.1 assists/g, 38.1% FG, 26.8% 3FG, 6.8 FTAs/g).
I’ll have to update this story at 7 p.m. Monday after the ACC Availability Report is made public, but Kelsey told reporters on his media call earlier today that both were still questionable, after the duo had to miss the 75-62 win over Boston College over the weekend – Conwell with a knee contusion suffered in practice last week, Brown with a lower-back injury that has sidelined him for the past six games.
In their absence, Kelsey went to a mix of McKneely and 6’3” senior Kobe Rodgers (4.3 ppg, 16.1 minutes/g) at the point, and 6’4” sophomore Adrian Wooley (10.0 ppg, 46.2% FG, 33.9% 3FG) at the one of the off-guard spots.
The bigs are good – 6’11” freshman Sananda Fru (11.1 ppg, 7.1 rebounds/g, 78.9% FG, 3.1 FTAs/g) is a beast around the basket, and 6’7” senior J’Vonne Hadley (10.1 ppg, 5.3 rebounds/g, 53.7% FG, 44.3% 3FG) is a tough matchup as a stretch four.
Analytics
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Offense
- Louisville: 1.244 PPP (10)
- Virginia: 1.225 PPP (18)
Defense
- Louisville: 1.001 PPP (42)
- Virginia: 0.980 PPP (23)
Tempo
- Louisville: 70.8 (50)
- Virginia: 66.4 (262)
Bench minutes
- Louisville: 35.9% (103)
- Virginia: 36.4% (88)
Keys to Odom Ball
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Threes (offense)
- Louisville: 34.8% (125)
- Virginia: 36.7% (46)
Threes (defense)
- Louisville: 31.5% (90)
- Virginia: 28.8% (10)
Rebounds (offense)
- Louisville: 35.1% (66)
- Virginia: 40.2% (7)
Rebounds (defense)
- Louisville: 74.1% (22)
- Virginia: 70.2% (134)
Turnover rate (offense)
- Louisville: 16.2% (114)
- Virginia: 15.5% (74)
Turnover rate (defense)
- Louisville: 17.5% (159)
- Virginia: 16.9% (202)
Game Details
Virginia (14-2, 3-1 ACC, NET: 16) at Louisville (12-4, 2-2 ACC, NET: 19)
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2 (Dave O’Brien/Cory Alexander)
Forecast
- KenPom: Louisville 80-77
- BartTorvik: Louisville 79-76
- ESPN BPI: Louisville +8.2
Video: Virginia-Louisville preview
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Chris Graham
