Mother Nature could deliver a “curveball” when it comes to the track of Helene and its potential impact on Virginia, according to an AccuWeather meteorologist.
The storm is just getting organized, said Thomas Kines, a senior meteorologist and director of scheduling for AccuWeather. He expects Helene will be upgraded to a hurricane before landfall.
“We still have to be cautious with predicting the track of Helene,” he said.
Helene is expected to make landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida Thursday evening. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for all or parts of Taylor, Franklin, Wakulla and Gulf counties in Florida.
The latest track shows remnants of the storm will make have an impact on Virginia.
“Virginia can certainly get dumped on by Helene,” Kines said. “There is a separate weather feature causing showers across the state into Thursday followed by rain from Helene later Thursday into at least Friday night. “
The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby brought anywhere from five to eight inches of rain to the Shenandoah Valley on Aug. 8-9.
The unnamed system known as Tropical Storm Eight that went through Waynesboro on Sept. 16-17 brought another six inches of rain to Waynesboro with some areas reporting eight inches or more. Only two to four inches had been predicted for the region.
“Rainfall into the weekend might average three to six inches in the western part of the state and one to three inches in the eastern part of the state,” Kines said. “As with any tropical system, there can be places that get higher amounts.”
The western part of the state includes the Shenandoah Valley, the Piedmont region and Southwest Virginia. The eastern part of the state includes the Eastern Shore, Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, Virginia Peninsula and Hampton Roads.
Rainfall of two to four inches over a 12-hour period can cause creek and river flooding in the valley and mountains while three to six inches of rain in a 12-hour period would be needed in the eastern part of Virginia, Kines said.
“So, at the very least, flooding of poor drainage areas can be expected and perhaps flooding of creeks and rivers.”
Follow the latest predictions for the path of the storm on AccuWeather.
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Crystal Graham
