ACC Bracketology: Movement, good and bad, after a crazy Saturday

The ACC did itself some damage on Saturday, with NC State losing at Notre Dame in OT, SMU losing by 20 at Stanford, Cal losing by 16 at home to Pitt.

I just don’t see how Cal is getting any love for a possible NCAA Tournament at-large berth, with its god-awful metrics.

And I now have SMU on the Last Four Byes line.

NC State, meanwhile, is facing down a possible third straight loss tomorrow night, with Duke coming to Raleigh.

Big games this week

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• Duke (27-2, 15-1 ACC) at NC State (19-10, 10-6 ACC), 7 p.m. Monday
• Clemson (21-8, 11-5 ACC) at North Carolina (23-6, 11-5 ACC), 7 p.m. Tuesday
• Miami (23-6, 12-4 ACC) at SMU (19-9, 8-8 ACC), 7 p.m. Wednesday
• Virginia Tech (18-11, 7-9 ACC) at Virginia (25-4, 13-3 ACC), noon Saturday
• Louisville (20-9, 9-7 ACC) at Miami (23-6, 12-4 ACC), 2 p.m. Saturday
• North Carolina (23-6, 11-5 ACC) at Duke (27-2, 15-1 ACC), 6:30 p.m. Saturday

Bracketology update

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Duke remains on the #1 NCAA seed line; Virginia, after the blowout loss in Cameron, is still on the #4 seed line.

I’ve moved North Carolina up to the #5 seed line, though they’re borderline 5/6.

Louisville remains a 6 because of metrics; eye test suggests they should be lower.

Miami is a 9 because of metrics; eye test suggests they should be higher.

SMU is teetering; NC State could be.

Locks (7)

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Duke (27-2, 15-1 ACC)

Quad 1: 12-2
Quad 2: 6-0
Quad 3-4: 9-0

Average computer ranking: 1.8
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 1 seed

Virginia (25-4, 13-3 ACC)

Quad 1: 6-3
Quad 2: 7-1
Quad 3-4: 12-0

Average computer ranking: 14.6
NCAA Tournament seed projection:  4 seed

North Carolina (23-6, 11-5 ACC)

Quad 1: 6-6
Quad 2: 3-0
Quad 3-4: 14-0

Average computer ranking: 20.9
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 5 seed

Louisville (20-9, 9-7 ACC)

Quad 1: 7-9
Quad 2: 3-0
Quad 3-4: 10-0

Average computer ranking: 23.1
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 6 seed

Clemson (21-8, 11-5 ACC)

Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 6-2
Quad 3-4: 10-1

Average computer ranking: 33.6
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 9 seed

NC State (19-10, 10-6 ACC)

Quad 1: 4-6
Quad 2: 7-3
Quad 3-4: 8-1

Average computer ranking: 34.1
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 9 seed

Miami (23-6, 12-4 ACC)

Quad 1: 3-4
Quad 2: 7-1
Quad 3-4: 14-1

Average computer ranking: 34.6
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 9 seed

Should be in (1)

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SMU (19-10, 8-8 ACC)

Quad 1: 4-8
Quad 2: 3-2
Quad 3-4: 12-0

Average computer ranking: 40.9
NCAA Tournament seed projection: Last Four Byes

Uphill battles (2)

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Virginia Tech (18-11, 7-9 ACC)

Quad 1: 2-9
Quad 2: 6-1
Quad 3-4: 10-1

Average computer ranking: 53.7

Cal (20-9, 8-8 ACC)

Quad 1: 4-4
Quad 2: 2-4
Quad 3-4: 13-1
Non-D1: 1-0

Average computer ranking: 61.4

Checking my work

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• AFP (ACC: 8 bids): Duke (1), Virginia (4), North Carolina (5), Louisville (6), NC State (7), Clemson (9), Miami (9), SMU (11)
• CBS Sports (ACC: 9 bids): Duke (1), Virginia (4), Louisville (6), North Carolina (6), Miami (7), Clemson (8), NC State (9), SMU (10), Cal (11-First Four)
• On3 (ACC: 8 bids): Duke (1), Virginia (4), Louisville (6), North Carolina (6), Clemson (8), Miami (8), NC State (9), SMU (10)
• Lunardi: Latest update from him is Friday at 9:30 a.m. ET.