Not that long ago, as in, two weeks ago, the ACC had eight NCAA Tournament locks, and an outside chance at sneaking another team or two into the field.
An upset-laden past couple of weeks has us down to six locks, two former locks – NC State and SMU – finishing the regular season on four-game losing streaks, and our teams on the outside looking in – Virginia Tech and Cal – falling off a cliff.
Meanwhile, the squad that I consider the third-best in the conference right now, Florida State, which went 10-3 down the stretch, finished at just 17-14 overall, and isn’t going anywhere unless it wins four games this week in Charlotte.
I would not want to have to play them, in any case.
Locks (6)
Duke (29-2, 17-1 ACC)
Quad 1: 15-2
Quad 2: 5-0
Quad 3-4: 9-0
Average computer ranking: 1.3
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 1 seed
What Duke needs to do this week: avoid injuries.
Virginia (27-4, 15-3 ACC)
Quad 1: 6-3
Quad 2: 9-1
Quad 3-4: 12-0
Average computer ranking: 14.0
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 4 seed
What Virginia needs to do this week: two wins in Charlotte probably gets UVA to the 3 seed line.
North Carolina (24-7, 12-6 ACC)
Quad 1: 6-7
Quad 2: 5-0
Quad 3-4: 13-0
Average computer ranking: 19.1
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 5 seed
What Carolina needs to do this week: win on Thursday, avail itself well on Friday night.
Louisville (22-9, 11-7 ACC)
Quad 1: 7-9
Quad 2: 4-0
Quad 3-4: 11-0
Average computer ranking: 20.2
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 5 seed
What Louisville needs to do this week: win on Wednesday, upset Miami on Thursday, and they’re flirting with the 4 seed line.
Miami (24-7, 13-5 ACC)
Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 6-2
Quad 3-4: 13-0
Average computer ranking: 34.6
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 9 seed
What Miami needs to do this week: avoid an upset on Thursday; they could fall to the 10 seed line, just because of issues with metrics.
Clemson (22-9, 12-6 ACC)
Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 6-4
Quad 3-4: 11-0
Average computer ranking: 35.8
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 9 seed
What Clemson needs to do this week: avoid an upset on Wednesday; they’re dropping to the 10 seed line with another L.
Work to Do (2)
NC State (19-12, 10-8 ACC)
Quad 1: 5-7
Quad 2: 6-4
Quad 3-4: 8-1
Average computer ranking: 41.3
NCAA Tournament seed projection: Last Four In
What NC State needs to do this week: absolutely cannot lose on Wednesday; they’re out of the NCAA Tournament with another L.
SMU (19-12, 8-10 ACC)
Quad 1: 4-8
Quad 2: 4-4
Quad 3-4: 11-0
Average computer ranking: 48.1
NCAA Tournament seed projection: Second Four Out
What SMU needs to do: needless to say, rack up a couple of wins; gotta get to Thursday.
Uphill battles (4)
Virginia Tech (19-12, 8-10 ACC)
Quad 1: 2-10
Quad 2: 6-2
Quad 3-4: 11-0
Average computer ranking: 54.0
Stanford (20-11, 9-9 ACC)
Quad 1: 5-6
Quad 2: 4-2
Quad 3-4: 11-3
Average computer ranking: 55.7
Cal (20-10, 9-9 ACC)
Quad 1: 4-6
Quad 2: 2-3
Quad 3-4: 14-1
Non-D1: 1-0
Average computer ranking: 63.3
Florida State (17-14, 10-8 ACC)
Quad 1: 3-8
Quad 2: 5-5
Quad 3-4: 9-1
Average computer ranking: 67.7
Checking my work
- AFP (ACC: 7 bids): Duke (1), Virginia (4), North Carolina (5), Louisville (5), Miami (9), Clemson (9), NC State (11)
- CBS Sports (ACC: 9 bids): Duke (1), Virginia (3), Louisville (5), North Carolina (6), Miami (7), Clemson (8), NC State (9), SMU (11), Stanford (11)
- On3 (ACC: 8 bids): Duke (1), Virginia (4), Louisville (6), North Carolina (6), Miami (7), Clemson (9), NC State (10), SMU (11)
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Chris Graham
