By Robert Mitchell
Virginia native Denny Hamlin had a tumultuous 2025, to say the least. It was one of his best seasons on the track, with eighteen top-ten finishes and six wins outright. Off the track, legal disputes and personal tragedy put a damper on things. Ultimately, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship saw him fall to sixth after leading most of the race. Now, in 2026, fans are wondering if this will finally be the year he can claim the Cup.
Denny Hamlin’s 2026 so far
With a new year and the classic Chase championship format, Denny Hamlin’s success hinges on consistency. When the Championship Chase comes, the points leader will get a 25-point buffer ahead of the car in second place, and each race is worth 55 points now instead of the former 40. It’s a cruel irony that, under these rules, Hamlin’s hiccup in Phoenix might not have stopped him winning last year.
As for where he is this year, he goes into the summer ahead of all other racers in the points standings. He also has four wins (Las Vegas, Nashville, Michigan, Pocono) and it’s an open question whether he’ll be able to top the six wins he claimed in 2025. He has over 100 points on second-place, North Carolina native and 2024 NASCAR All-Star Open winner Ty Gibbs.
Naturally, this has made Hamlin the one to beat in 2026. He’s the favorite for most sportsbooks, which are driving hype for the Cup Series by offering promo codes to new sign-ups. Hamlin has even odds at theScore Bet, while others have a slightly more cautious +160 on him taking the whole Series. That’s probably because his last win, Pocono, was back in June. There’s still plenty of room for an upset.
Can Denny Hamlin win?
2026 could shape up to be Denny Hamlin’s year, a re-do of 2025 with a new, more favorable race format and a welcome absence of off-track dramatics. Those could come together to boost Hamlin’s performance throughout summer and autumn. That seems to be how it’s playing out so far, with Hamlin as the points leader, joint wins leader, and a clear betting favorite.
We’ve covered Denny Hamlin here before and, for as much as Hamlin’s consistency might help him with the new Chase format, it should be stressed that nobody has done this before. When the final ten races start, we could find that Hamlin works best under one-race pressure as opposed to ten very important races. That, and a recent streak of no wins, may indicate trouble on the horizon. As if reflecting all this, oddsmakers are putting him as a cautious favorite, not a done deal.
Then there’s the competition. It’s no secret that Hamlin is one of the more senior racers on the track, and he’s up against last year’s champ Kyle Larson plus other consistent racers like Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott. Tyler Reddick, for Hamlin’s own 23XI Racing, is also becoming a competitive force. While Hamlin would ultimately benefit from that win, it’s not the personal accolade he’s aiming for.
If it wasn’t obvious, Denny Hamlin can and seems on track to win in 2026. Whether that’s how it actually plays out is anyone’s call.
This content is provided for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice. AFP editorial staff were not involved in the creation of this content.
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