Sean McDermott spent nine years building something real in Orchard Park. Last term marked a seventh straight playoff berth, the longest active postseason streak in football, but sometimes just playing football in January isn’t enough. He cleaned out his office shortly after the Bills collapsed once again, this time to the Denver Broncos in the Divisional round after four turnovers from superstar Josh Allen.
That’s the part that’s easy to lose in the numbers. Four straight years falling in January to Kansas City or Denver will do something to a fanbase, to a locker room, to a coach who did almost everything right and still watched the door close on him anyway. Buffalo went 12-5 in 2025, lost the division to New England for the first time in six years, then beat Jacksonville on the road in the Wild Card round — their first road playoff win since 1992 — before Denver finished them off in overtime in the Divisional Round.
That loss cost McDermott his job. But will his now-former side manage to return to prominence and usurp the Patriots to rule once more out East? Let’s take a look.
Bills remain the favorites
Despite surrendering the AFC East crown last season, the Bills remain the favorites to rule over the division in 2026, just as they were a year ago. So why hand the keys to Joe Brady, a thirty-something offensive coordinator with zero head-coaching experience, instead of chasing a splashier name? Because Brandon Beane isn’t rebuilding — he’s looking for continuity, trying to keep a championship window open with Josh Allen still in his prime.
Brady already knows exactly what this roster is capable of. Pete Carmichael inherits play-calling duties. James Cook, fresh off a league-leading 1,621 rushing yards, got his extension, and so did center Connor McGovern. The one real swing was trading for DJ Moore, finally giving Allen a genuine outside threat after years of the passing game feeling like it was held together with tape. There’s the small matter of a new stadium opening, too — a literal symbol that Buffalo isn’t going anywhere, even as the coaching staff turns over.
The betting market still trusts Allen more than anyone else in this division; -130 odds say exactly that. But trust built on talent isn’t the same as trust built on results, and after seven years of near-misses, this is Brady’s team to prove something with, not McDermott’s legacy to protect.
Can the Patriots repeat?
Mike Vrabel walked into his first Foxborough press conference inheriting a team that had just gone 4-13, fired its head coach after a single season, and spent five years marinating in a post-Tom Brady malaise nobody quite knew how to shake. Nobody in that building believed a Super Bowl appearance was twelve months away. Then it happened anyway — a 14-3 finish, a 10-win swing that ties the largest single-season turnaround in NFL history, Drake Maye throwing for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns with a 113.5 rating and looking exactly like the quarterback New England thought it was drafting.
The bookies had the Patriots as a +350 underdog to win the division last season, and they did it anyway, edging out Buffalo by two games. Now, they remain underdogs, but the narrowest of them. The early Patriots odds ahead of the 2026 season make New England a +130 to repeat as AFC East winners, and after defeating each of the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos to reach Super Bowl LX, it’s hard to argue with their shortening odds.
But in that Big Game in Santa Clara, Seattle sacked Maye six times and closed it out 29-13. Does a Super Bowl appearance feel like validation? Does the defeat feel like unfinished business? Probably both, and New England’s offseason reads like an organization that knows exactly which one it wants it to be.
They cut Stefon Diggs for cap reasons and turned around and traded for A.J. Brown — arguably the best receiver on the market, a player Philadelphia let walk because the money and the draft compensation lined up in New England’s favor. The defensive additions tell the same story — Milton Williams, Harold Landry, Carlton Davis, and Robert Spillane — built specifically to survive the exact kind of pass rush that just ended their season in February. It would take a brave punter to bet against them in 2026.
Jets rebuild continues
A defense that didn’t record a single interception all season — an NFL first — and the head coach still kept his job. Sit with that for a second. The Jets haven’t won this division since 2002, haven’t made the playoffs in 15 years, the longest active drought in the four major North American sports, and 2025 added a new low: 3-14, an 0-7 start, and Steve Wilks was fired as defensive coordinator mid-season.
Aaron Glenn called his own rookie learning curve a “huge deal,” out loud, in public — which is either refreshing honesty or a coach negotiating with his own job security in real time. Ownership’s answer wasn’t to fire him. It was to strip 12 of 22 assistants and make him call the defense himself, with Frank Reich running the offense and Brian Duker the new DC. Darren Mougey spent the No. 2 overall pick on David Bailey and re-signed Demario Davis, but at +2200, it would be an almighty surprise to see them win the division.
Miami at ground zero
Miami is a franchise that has torn down the building and is about to start again from scratch. Mike McDaniel’s offense was supposed to be the future back in 2022. Instead: zero playoff wins, a drought stretching to 2000, a 1-6 start in 2025, Chris Grier gone in October, Tua benched for rookie Quinn Ewers in Week 16. McDaniel was fired in January, a 35-33 tenure that never quite became what it promised.
The rebuild under Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley has been total — Tua, Tyreek Hill, and Bradley Chubb all released, $56 million in cap space cleared against a league-leading $179 million in dead money absorbed. Malik Willis is QB1 now, for better or worse, and Miami used a league-high 13 draft picks trying to find a way back to relevance somehow. At +3300, the season’s already been written off before it starts.
This content is provided for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice. AFP editorial staff were not involved in the creation of this content.
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