An AccuWeather meteorologist is standing by his initial prediction of one to three inches of snow in the Waynesboro area arriving late Sunday and continuing Monday, despite a Winter Storm Watch advisory that says up to 10 inches of snow is possible.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Thomas Kines said there will be mixed precipitation with the snow in Waynesboro, and it will keep snow accumulation totals down.
“There is still concern there will be a lot of sleet and freezing rain mixed in which would keep amounts at a tolerable level,” Kines told AFP Saturday morning.
“Travel Monday morning still looks poor at best,” he said.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin declared a State of Emergency on Friday in anticipation of the winter storm urging Virginians to begin preparations now.
Winter Storm Watch issued
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of central, northwest and western Virginia from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
The watch area includes a wide swath of Virginia: Augusta, Rockingham, Nelson, Albemarle, Greene, Orange and Spotsylvania counties. It also includes Western Highland, Eastern Highland, Northern Virginia and Central Virginia.
The watch warns that heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain are possible. The watch lists snow accumulations of five inches or greater, and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch.
The watch also said localized bands could bring up to 10 inches of snow.
The challenge of predicting snowfall
It seems safe to say the storm may warrant putting together some supplies in advance: salt, shovels, snow blowers, a generator, fire wood, ice scraper, coats, hats and gloves. And for snow lovers, it might be time to also gather the fun stuff just in case: hot chocolate, overalls, sleds, skis and all the items needed to build the perfect snowman.
Forecasting snow is particularly challenging to meteorologists. The public often give meteorologists a hard time when they are wrong, but the difference can sometimes be just a few degrees for whether the storm will bring rain, snow or ice.
Factors in predicting snow totals are temperature at the surface as well as temperatures thousands of feet above the ground and wind direction, to name a few.
“I would say that for most meteorologists, forecasting snowfall amounts is the hardest thing we do,” Meteorologist JD Rudd, based in Wisconsin, told SpectrumNews1. “Forecasting snow amounts is very, very tough. The slightest change in a storm’s track or intensity can be the difference between three and nine inches of snow.”
Social-media driven misinformation hyping major snowfall doesn’t make the job of a meteorologist any easier.
“There are the social ‘media-rologists’ that immediately post models many days out and start internet rumors,” said Meteorologist Eric Elwell, based in Ohio. “These people typically don’t understand the nuances and biases of the models, especially beyond a couple of days.”
Rudd said he thinks it is best for meteorologists to be honest with viewers or followers.
“I think when it comes to forecasting snow amounts, you have to be honest with people,” Rudd said. “Tell them what you know and what you don’t know. If the amounts could really change, say that.”
AccuWeather prediction maps
Go to AccuWeather for the latest forecast.
Related stories
For our latest weather coverage, search “weather” on Augusta Free Press.
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- Virginia: Fauquier, Rappahannock counties brace for up to 10 inches of snow
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- ‘Don’t tempt fate’: Virginians encouraged to stay on top of forecast, delay travel
- The big one? AccuWeather expert breaks down the impending snowstorm for Shenandoah Valley
- Weather expert: First major snowstorm of the season possible in Virginia
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Crystal Graham
