The Virginia REALTORS® 2021 Economic & Housing Market Forecast offers a mixed bag in terms of the look at the near future.
Generally speaking, better. The forecast projects the economy to top out at 3.96 million jobs, up 2.2 percent over where we are now, but still 2.6 percent below where we were in mid-March, at the unofficial official start to the pandemic, and the beginning of the stay-at-home orders and social distancing done in the name of public health.
Virginia REALTORS® engages in forecasting because its members are in the home-sales business, so much of its forecast is about being able to gauge how that market will go.
Of note, looking back for a moment, it’s interesting to note that home sales in 2020 in Virginia will top 2019 sales, despite the economic recession and spring market slowdown.
There are projected to be a total of 132,370 home sales statewide in 2020, up 4.8 percent compared to 2019 sales. Home prices, which have been rising at double-digit rates in recent months, will end 2020 at a record high. It is expected that the 2020 median home sales price in Virginia will be $318,900, up 8.1 percent from 2019.
Looking ahead to 2021, then, the forecast is that while demand for homeownership will continue to be strong in 2021, a lack of inventory will be a major constraint on the market.
The home sales forecast suggests that in 2021 there will be a total of 135,018 sales in Virginia, which will be up 2.0 percent from the total number of sales in 2020, and that the median home sales price statewide in Virginia will increase by 9.5 percent in 2021.
The forecast for 2021 also projects a total of 37,817 permits to be issued statewide for new housing units in 2021, which reflects an 8.9 percent rise over the 2020 total.
Story by Chris Graham
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Chris Graham
