Was a weak schedule the reason Virginia Baseball faltered at the end?

Virginia got out to a 26-3 start, and stumbled home to a 13-16 finish. Your suspicions are correct: the torrid first half was a function of weak strength of schedule.

But that’s not the whole story as to why Virginia’s once-promising season came to what seems to be a premature end, as you’ll see if you keep reading.

The aggregate record of Virginia’s first-half foes was 383-476, with just six of the 16 opponents finishing with winning records, and three of those teams getting NCAA Tournament bids.

The record of the second-half teams was 543-324, with 13 of those 15 opponents finishing with winning records, and nine of those programs getting NCAA bids.

And among the six who didn’t were ODU (41-17) and Clemson (35-23), who more than a few folks thought should have gotten in.

Virginia’s record overall against teams with winning records: 19-18.

The record overall against the 12 NCAA Tournament teams: 7-12.

Per WarrenNolan.com, Virginia was 21-0 against Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents.

Down the road in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech, which was 21-8 in its first 29 games, and has gone 23-4 since, is currently 21-2 against Quad 3 and Quad 4.

Also per WarrenNolan.com, Virginia had a tougher non-conference strength of schedule (165, vs. Tech’s 213) and overall strength of schedule (33, vs. Tech’s 53).

So, the Hokies actually played a weaker schedule.

Why they’re still playing: they are 17-9 in Quad 1 games; Virginia finished 13-15 in Quad 1 games.

Fleshing out the comparison: Tech is 17-9 against the 11 NCAA Tournament foes it has played to date, and 23-12 against teams with winning records.

The conclusion here: Virginia’s downfall wasn’t a weak early schedule, but rather, just not being good enough against quality programs.

Story by Chris Graham