Tim Miller, at The Bulwark, and MS NOW, a former Republican campaign staffer-turned-Never Trumper, highlighted Beth Macy in a Sept. 30 column titled “More Democrats Who Can Win Red America.”
Macy is our best chance in more than 30 years to have a Democrat win in the Sixth District, but that’s me saying that, which you can dismiss as wishful thinking.
Miller is on the outside looking in, so … maybe he has more authority?
He’s a Never Trumper, and works for MS NOW, but still.
I’m just a local yokel.
Macy is challenging Ben Cline, the House Freedom Caucus guy running for re-election in a district that the Cook Political Report has at R+12, which sounds low – the best a Democrat has run against Cline was in his inaugural run for the seat, in 2018, when Jennifer Lewis got 40.2 percent of the vote.
Bob Goodlatte, Cline’s mentor and predecessor, only had a Democratic opponent get near 40 percent once – in his inaugural run, in 1992, when Stephen Musselwhite got 39.9 percent.
So, that’s two times in – checks math – 32 years, 17 election cycles, where the Democrat did well getting to 40 percent, which is 10 percent plus one vote away from winning.
R+12?
Anyway.
Miller’s assessment of Macy’s chances:
- Beth Macy is a reporter and nonfiction author who wrote Dopesick about the opioid crisis (which was later adapted into a great TV show, fwiw). Despite being a memoirist with ties to Appalachia, she balks at any association with JD Vance, which is automatically appealing to me, obviously.
- Incumbent Republican Ben Cline is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, and a 2024 analysis by FiveThirtyEight placed Cline in the same “quiet caucus” of “Far-Right Obstructionists” as MTG, Lauren Boebert, and Jim Jordan. Unsurprisingly, he was in favor of Trump’s attempted coup.
- Virginia’s 1st, 2nd, and 5th districts are more obvious pickup opportunities with plenty of support from national Democrats. But Virginia Dem insiders tell me VA-06 is the sneaky one to watch. The Shenandoah Valley–centered district has some college towns and artsy progressive pockets and is generally less rural than its redder southwestern neighbor (the 9th). Virginia was hit hard by DOGE firings that affected the whole Commonwealth’s economy, not just the D.C. suburbs. Keep your eye on this one as an indicator of how big the blue wave actually is.
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Chris Graham
