Game preview: What UVA Basketball fans should know about Syracuse

Syracuse has lost five of its last six, after a 12-5 start, 3-1 in ACC play, putting the future of third-year head coach Adrian Autry at question.

It’s so bad that Autry had to hear on his radio show last week from a Tyler from Binghamton, who tried to ask Autry, “Who do you think are going to be the best candidates for your job,” before the engineer cut Tyler off.

Autry, a Syracuse alum, and long-time assistant under Jim Boeheim, is 47-41 in his three seasons as the head coach, and hasn’t sniffed the NCAA Tournament.

One thing about his approach to the job that confounds me is, he scrapped the 2-3 zone that Boeheim used to win a ton of games, particularly in March, as recently as 2021, when Boeheim snuck another team into a Sweet 16.

That 2-3 zone was what made games against Syracuse uncomfortable – because you had to do everything different on the offensive end for that one game, against a team that always played that way.

Boeheim had decades of success recruiting to the style of play – a seven-footer in the middle, to block shots and get rebounds; big forwards, to close out in the corners on threes, and themselves stretch defenses on the perimeter; and fast, disruptive guards, who could force turnovers up top, and get out on the break after a miss.

Seems that Autry might have outsmarted himself out of a job.

The rotation

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The offense is built around 6’9” sophomore Donnie Freeman (18.6 ppg, 7.4 rebounds/g, 50.9% FG, 34.0% 3FG, 6.4 FTAs/g, 30.4 minutes/g).

JJ Starling, a 6’4” senior, was a five-star recruit out of high school, and early on, was looked at as a possible one- or two-and-done.

Starling (12.0 ppg, 44.5% FG, 32.3% 3FG, 29.9 minutes/g) has been a double-digit scorer in all four of his college seasons – one at Notre Dame, the last three at Syracuse – but he’s not a next-level guy.

Key contributors

• 6’5” senior Nate Kingz: 10.9 ppg, 47.6% FG, 37.6% 3FG, 30.2 minutes/g
• 6’3” junior Naithan George: 9.7 ppg, 5.5 assists/g, 39.4% FG, 31.4% 3FG, 30.2 minutes/g
• 6’9” senior William Kyle: 9.2 ppg, 7.4 rebounds/g, 66.1% FG, 27.7 minutes/g
• 6’5” freshman Kiyan Anthony: 8.9 ppg, 41.6% FG, 23.3% 3FG, 19.9 minutes/g
• 6’8” sophomore Tyler Betsey: 7.2 ppg, 40.8% FG, 40.4% 3FG, 18.2 minutes/g
• 6’9” freshman Sadiq White: 6.0 ppg, 51.3% FG, 28.6% 3FG, 16.3 minutes/g

Analytics

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Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams

Offense

Syracuse: 1.149 PPP (80)
Virginia: 1.237 PPP (17)

Defense

Syracuse: 1.031 PPP (68)
Virginia: 0.982 PPP (22)

Tempo

Syracuse: 68.1 (134)
Virginia: 65.5 (275)

Effective field goal percentage (offense)

Syracuse: 53.1% (101)
Virginia: 55.2% (44)

Effective field goal percentage (defense)

Syracuse: 48.0% (55)
Virginia: 45.0% (8)

Bench minutes

Syracuse: 30.8% (230)
Virginia: 35.5% (111)

Keys to Odom Ball

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Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams

Twos (offense)

Syracuse: 54.6% (81)
Virginia: 56.4% (50)

Twos (defense)

Syracuse: 47.9% (53)
Virginia: 44.8% (9)

Threes (offense)

Syracuse: 33.7% (199)
Virginia: 35.9% (74)

Threes (defense)

Syracuse: 32.1% (85)
Virginia: 30.3% (38)

Rebounds (offense)

Syracuse: 30.1% (203)
Virginia: 40.0% (3)

Rebounds (defense)

Syracuse: 67.5% (269)
Virginia: 70.6% (124)

Turnover rate (offense)

Syracuse: 16.2% (133)
Virginia: 15.6% (85)

Turnover rate (defense)

Syracuse: 18.9% (78)
Virginia: 16.2% (234)

Game Details

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Syracuse (13-10, 4-6 ACC, NET: 69) at Virginia (19-3, 8-2 ACC, NET: 16)
Day/Time: Saturday, noon ET
TV: ESPN (Roy Philpott & Jon Crispin)

Forecast

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KenPom: Virginia 80-67
BartTorvik: Virginia 79-66
ESPN BPI: Virginia +10.7

UVA Basketball archives

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• UVA Basketball: They should have done the Tony Bennett thing at the Pitt game
• UVA Basketball: Still counts, but Boston College made that one ugly
• ‘Hoos 100, Notre Dame 97: Odom, Virginia learn how to win by going small
• UVA Basketball: Carolina attacked the paint, ‘Hoos had no response
• UVA Basketball: Virginia slugs out 72-68 win at SMU to improve to 16-2
• UVA Basketball: McKneely goes for 23, but ‘Hoos get the Top 25 road win
• UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos clamp down on D on Stanford in 70-55 win
• UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos stifle Cal with gritty second half D, win 84-60
• UVA Basketball: Virginia blows out NC State, 76-61, in Saturday ACC matinee
• UVA Basketball: Hokies ride advantage at stripe to upset of #21 ‘Hoos