The two hottest teams in the ACC, Miami, winners of four straight, and Virginia, winners of seven straight, meet up on Saturday in Charlottesville.
Miami’s recent stretch includes wins over North Carolina, NC State and Virginia Tech – so, two NCAA Tournament teams, and a Tech team that could still play its way in.
I like the group that first-year coach Jai Lucas has put together – talented, not quite as deep as what Ryan Odom has done at UVA, but good effort at roster construction for a guy who had to rebuild from nothing.
ICYMI: UVA Basketball recent archives
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos dominant in 94-68 blowout win at Georgia Tech
- UVA Basketball: Nothing comes easy for this group; might as well embrace it
- UVA Basketball: Florida State dictated, but couldn’t finish off the upset
- UVA Basketball: Virginia grinds out win against tough Syracuse team
Rotation
The leading scorer is a guy in 6’9” senior Malik Reneau (19.7 ppg, 6.6 rebounds/g, 56.4% FG, 35.1% 3FG, 5.6 FTAs/g) who was a double-digit scorer at Indiana for two years.
Solid portal pickup there.
The Reneau-Thijs de Ridder matchup at the four spot will have the attention of the NBA scouts in attendance at JPJ.
Three other guys average in double-digits:
- 6’3” senior Tre Donaldson: 16.4 ppg, 5.9 assists/g, 45.8% FG, 32.8% 3FG, 4.2 FTAs/g
- 6’6” freshman Shelton Henderson: 14.3 ppg, 4.9 rebounds/g, 59.1% FG, 27.9% 3FG, 5.0 FTAs/g
- 6’4” junior Tru Washington: 11.5 ppg, 4.0 rebounds/g, 44.7% FG, 31.4% 3FG
Key contributors:
- 6’4” freshman Dante Allen: 6.8 ppg, 41.9% FG, 29.8% 3FG
- 6’11” senior Ernest Udeh Jr.: 6.8 ppg, 9.5 rebounds/g, 72.8% FG
- 6’8” freshman Timo Malovec: 4.8 ppg, 36.1% FG, 35.1% 3FG
Game Details
Miami (21-5, 10-3 ACC, NET: 37) at Virginia (23-3, 11-2 ACC, NET: 16)
Day/Time: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2 (Wes Durham & Randolph Childress)
Analytics: Miami offense vs. UVA defense
Data: KenPom and CBB Analytics; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Miami: 1.194 PPP (54)
Virginia: 0.956 PPP (15)
Threes
Miami: 33.1% (232)
Virginia: 29.5% (12)
At the Rim
Miami: 411/602, 68.3% (40)
Virginia: 233/414, 56.3% (23)
Paint 2s
Miami: 170/357, 47.6% (41)
Virginia: 124/333, 37.2% (50)
Rebounds
Offensive- Miami: 37.1% (17)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.7% (76)
Turnover rate
Miami: 16.1% (129)
Virginia: 16.2% (225)
Analytics: UVA offense vs. Miami defense
Data: KenPom and CBB Analytics; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Virginia: 1.216 PPP (34)
Miami: 1.002 PPP (36)
Threes
Virginia: 35.5% (89)
Miami: 35.3% (248)
At the Rim
Virginia: 333/531, 62.7% (162)
Miami: 245/393, 62.3% (178)
Paint 2s
Virginia: 110/252, 43.7% (123)
Miami: 119/296, 40.2% (129)
Rebounds
Offensive-Virginia: 39.9% (3)
Defensive-Miami: 74.3% (15)
Turnover rate
Virginia: 16.0% (121)
Miami: 18.5% (88)
Forecast
KenPom: Virginia 77-69
BartTorvik: Virginia 77-67
ESPN BPI: Virginia +7.2
Analysis
- Miami attacks: top 20 in the country in makes at the rim and success on the offensive glass.
- Miami ranks first in ACC games in free-throw attempts per game (22.9). This will challenge a Virginia team that can, at times, be foul-prone, or at least, have fouls called in bunches.
- Miami doesn’t shoot threes well, against a Virginia defense that is among the best at defending the three. They don’t shoot a lot of them – 18th, dead-last, in conference games, 313th nationally in all games.
- Miami doesn’t defend the three well, against a Virginia team that shoots it well, and a lot. This could be key for Virginia: to attack the paint for kickouts for open threes, and to work the offensive boards for offensive-rebound threes, which are the best shots in basketball.
- Depth could be an issue for Miami, which gets 29.1 percent of its minutes from its bench, and really only goes seven deep.
Bottom line
I see this one being closer than the predictive sites do, even if the final score ends up being closer to what they project, if that makes sense.
This feels like the kind of game that Virginia wins with its depth as much as anything.
Support AFP
Share
Chris Graham
