Here’s one thing UVA Basketball fans don’t want to know about Cal: that Cal has lost six of its last seven, and is still a 2.5-point favorite over the ‘Hoos for their game on Wednesday night.
Actually, that might be something you don’t want to know about your ‘Hoos.
Something you don’t want to know about the game: it tips at 11 p.m. ET, because the people who run the ACC are morons.
This one is the only 11 p.m. ET tip for one of the East Coast teams this season.
And here we thought the ACC had a shred of respect for Tony Bennett.
Scheduling stupidity
Virginia and Virginia Tech are the two teams making the West Coast swing this week.
Eight teams head out to Cal and Stanford, the other eight get Cal and Stanford at home.
You can guess who, in Year 1 of this scheduling experiment, are among the eight who get the games at home.
(Cough, cough, Duke and Carolina, step right up.)
Who’s with me feeling that this experiment isn’t going to live to see a Year 2?
Forecast
- BartTorvik: Cal 66-64, 57% win probability
- ESPN BPI: Cal +1.7, 56.6% win probability
- KenPom: Cal 68-66, 56% win probability
- EvanMiya: Cal 69-68, 54.5% win probability
- Haslametrics: Cal 68-67
Cal rotation
I remember the name Andrej Stojakovic (19.9 ppg, 4.5 rebounds/g, 46.3% FG, 36.8% 3FG) because UVA was in on the Stojakovic sweepstakes when he was a prep recruit.
Stojakovic is a 6’7” sophomore who splits his 31.8 minutes per game between the two and three spots in the backcourt.
Jeremiah Wilkinson, a 6’1” freshman, is the team’s second-leading scorer (12.6 ppg, 46.8% FG, 33.9% 3FG) as the sixth man.
Jovan Blacksher, a 5’11” sixth-year senior, played five seasons at Grand Canyon, and was granted a sixth year because he played 12 games in 2022-2023.
I’m not sure how that works, but even so, Blacksher is putting up decent numbers (12.0 ppg, 3.4 assists/g, 38.8% FG, 40.3% 3FG).
The rest of the rotation:
- Rytis Petraitis, a 6’7” junior (and Air Force transfer), averages 7.8 points and 4.1 rebounds per game (45.3% FG, 28.0% 3FG).
- Joshua Ola-Joseph, a 6’7” junior (and Minnesota transfer), averages 7.5 points and 4.0 rebounds per game (45.5% FG, 32.4% 3FG).
- DeJuan Campbell, a 6’2” junior (and Western Carolina transfer), averages 7.4 points per game (43.4% FG, 33.3% 3FG).
- Mady Sissoko, a 6’9” fifth-year senior (and Michigan State transfer), averages 6.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game (64.0% FG).
- Lee Dort, a 6’10” junior (and Vanderbilt transfer), averages 3.4 points and 5.6 rebounds per game (53.3% FG).
- Christian Tucker, a 6’3” senior (and UTSA transfer), averages 1.9 points per game (28.6% FG, 35.7% 3FG).
How they match up
Second-year Cal head coach Mark Madsen goes four-guard for 95 percent of his minutes, with Petraitis and Ola-Joseph splitting the minutes as the small-ball four.
This means Virginia needs to exploit the matchup advantage with 6’8” Elijah Saunders (12.1 ppg, 4.9 rebounds/g, 48.4% FG, 35.1% 3FG), who will be too strong for either of the Cal small-ball fours to contain in the lane.
Now, the problem: who guards Stojakovic?
This team is missing a Ryan Dunn, a De’Andre Hunter, a Braxton Key, a Devon Hall, who can neutralize big-guard scorers.
UVA interim Ron Sanchez has been going with 6’5” senior Taine Murray (4.3 ppg, 40.4% FG, 30.0% 3FG) in the starting backcourt of late (OK, for one game).
Murray is a better option on Stojakovic than either 6’6” junior Andrew Rohde (9.1 ppg, 3.2 assists/g, 47.8% FG, 45.9% 3FG) or 6’4” junior Isaac McKneely (12.3 ppg, 3.1 assists/g, 42.7% FG, 44.6% 3FG).
I’d love to see some minutes for 6’1” sophomore Dai Dai Ames (6.8 ppg, 38.5% FG, 44.0% 3FG) to check Blacksher, but Ames is in Sanchez’s doghouse, getting 9.5 minutes per game over the past two games.
Bottom line
I don’t like this matchup for Virginia.
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Chris Graham
