Poll: Majority backs Virginia Democrats on congressional redistricting

A Christopher Newport University poll out Wednesday tells us that the battle lines on a proposed redistricting amendment are already pretty well set – in favor.

Fifty-one percent of Virginians, per the poll, either “strongly support” or “support” the amendment, which would allow the General Assembly to redraw congressional district maps in advance of the fall midterm elections.

Forty-three percent either “oppose” or “strongly oppose” the proposed amendment.

Not a lot of wiggle room there.

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ICYMI

• Virginia Democrats fighting gerrymandering fire with gerrymandering fire
• Virginia Republicans cry foul over Dems’ congressional redistricting move
• Virginia moving forward with redistricting: What it means for us locally
• Lucas to Kaine, Warner: No comments on redistricting from the ‘cuck chair in the corner’

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Virginia Democrats have signaled their intent to redraw the district lines as a response to MAGA-led states redrawing their lines to try to beef up Republican numbers in the U.S. House.

The current party split in the Virginia delegation is 6-5 in favor of Democrats.

Democrats would be favorites in two of the five current GOP-held seats, in the First and Second, in the fall midterms, without any redistricting, which would get us to 8-3.

State Senate President Louise Lucas, who has been the vocal leader of the redistricting effort, is pushing a new district map that would create a 10-1 split, leaving just the Ninth District seat, held by Morgan Griffith, as a safe Republican district, representing a wide swath of the western and southwest parts of the state.

A minor complication was thrown into the process on Tuesday, with a ruling from a Bob McDonnell-appointed local judge in Southwest Virginia saying Democrats were guilty of a “blatant abuse of power” in trying to get the redistricting amendment on the ballot in April.

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ICYMI

• Republican judge says Dems’ redistricting effort is ‘blatant abuse of power’

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Democratic leaders issued a statement on the partisan-tinged ruling saying it will not “dissuade us from continuing to move forward and put this matter directly to the voters.”

The CNU poll numbers signal to us why Virginia Republicans went to court to try to keep the amendment from getting to the voters: because they know they will lose, both the referendum, and then in November.