You’ve maybe heard about the new poll from Christopher Newport University that has the Democrats with big leads across the board in the statewide races.
The numbers are consistent with the polling we’ve been seeing all year, honestly – with Abigail Spanberger lapping Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race, getting past 50 percent in the CNU poll, which was released on Thursday, and has the Democrat ahead by a 52 percent-to-40 percent margin.
The Democrat in the lieutenant governor race, Ghazala Hashmi, has a 48 percent-to-37 percent lead on MAGA talk-radio squawker John Reid.
In the attorney general race, the incumbent, a MAGA, Jason Miyares, trails former state lawmaker Jay Jones by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent.
The generic, Who are you voting for in the House of Delegates, gets a 51 percent Democrat/43 percent Republican split.
The backdrop to all of this: 48 percent of the folks surveyed for this poll approve of the job that Glenn Youngkin is doing, which, when you see that, would get you to wonder, at first glance: was this poll weighted to be more Republican, and the Republicans are still losing?
Then you see that Donald Trump gets a 39 percent approval number from this group; 58 percent disapprove.
That’s the headwind that the MAGA candidates are running into in the 2025 cycle.
Trump actually ran better in Virginia in 2024 against Kamala Harris than he had in any of his previous two runs for president – he lost Virginia to Harris by five points; Joe Biden beat Trump here by 10 points in 2020; Hillary Clinton beat Trump by five points in 2016.
OK, so, actually, Trump ran better against the women in 2016 and 2024.
Maybe Republicans would have had a chance in 2025 if they’d run an angry White dude, as opposed to a Black immigrant.
Oh, well.
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Chris Graham
