A poll from Atlas Intel, which FiveThirtyEight rated the second-best pollster of the 2024 cycle, so, they have that going for them, which is nice, Abigail Spanberger has an 8.7-point lead in the governor’s race, and Jay Jones is in striking distance.
Maybe I shouldn’t use that analogy with Jay Jones.
Or, close range.
Shooting range.
Still too soon.
The Spanberger lead in the Atlas Intel poll is actually the smallest of the several out in the past few days, with the analytics website FiftyPlusOne giving her a 10.9-point lead in its updated polling average.
Back to Atlas Intel: Spanberger was at a healthy 53.9 percent, which is important – big leads for candidates who are still under the 50 percent mark suggests there’s a chance for a late break with undecideds.
In the LG race, the Democrat, Ghazala Hashmi, is at 51.7 percent, a 6.1-point margin over the Republican, John Reid, who is at 45.6 percent.
And in the attorney general race, the incumbent Republican, Jason Miyares, leads Jones, the death-texts Democrat, by 1.5 points, but Miyares is still under the 50 percent threshold, at 48.1 percent.
The difference in the AG race relative to the other two: the independent vote.
Spanberger is at 60.1 percent with independents, and Hashmi is at 56.1 percent.
Jones: 45.4 percent.
Atlas Intel still has a sliver over 5 percent undecided.
The AG race is still out there to be won, is what I’m getting at there.
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Chris Graham
