For all the talk about how defense wins games, did defense push #13 Virginia past #8 Miami Tuesday? Let’s look at the numbers.
Miami scored 58 points on 61 offensive possessions Tuesday night, 0.951 points per possession.
Virginia’s last three opponents, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, scored a combined 204 points on 185 offensive possessions over those three games, 1.103 points per possession over the stretch.
So, let’s give Miami 1.103 points per possession Tuesday, and see how the math works out.
Sixty-one possessions, times 1.103 points per possession, comes out to: 67.3 points.
Virginia won, 66-58, with an offensive output (1.082 points per possession) in line with what the Cavs had put up in its previous three (1.129 points per possession).
Give UVA that output Tuesday night, and the ‘Hoos win 68-67.
At best a one-point win, likely a loss.
That’s the value of a tight Pack-Line.
– Story by Chris Graham
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