I don’t know that I’m feeling this Virginia being a 3.5-point favorite at Coastal Carolina thing on Saturday.
One, we’re heading into a hornet’s nest.
Brooks Stadium only holds 20,000, but the stadium will be packed for the second-ever Power 5/Power 4 home game for the Chanticleers.
“It’s awesome. I think our fan base, the Conwave, they’re super excited,” Coastal coach Tim Beck said this week. “Everybody’s talking about it. It’s going to be a great environment, probably one they haven’t had for a long time. Tickets are hard to come by, I can tell you that. Everybody’s trying to get here. So, it should be an electrifying event.”
Two, the Chants are 3-0, with wins over Jacksonville State, William & Mary and Temple, the latter of those a 28-20 win on the road in Week 3.
Three, Coastal’s QB is a Virginia kid, Ethan Vasko, who led Oscar F. Smith to back-to-back Class 6 state championships, in the spring and fall of 2021, and didn’t get a sniff from UVA, so you might think he’ll go into this one with a bit of a chip on his shoulder.
Vasko is the definition of dual-threat QB: in the win at Temple, he was 15-of-21 for 103 yards and a TD through the air, and he put up 103 sack-adjusted yards on the ground on 15 attempts.
“I thought Ethan played a very smart football game,” Beck said. “He threw the ball down the field when he had them, and when he didn’t have them, he made really good decisions with the football and by running he created first downs. That puts a lot of stress on the defense. Patience is important. Winning the football game is important. They’re not always going to be pretty.”
Four, Coastal Carolina might be Group of 5, but the roster is full of transfers from the Power 5/Power 4: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Southern Cal, Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Texas, Tennessee, Mississippi State, North Carolina, NC State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse.
Even Beck, the coach, brings a Power 5/Power 4 background – with stints as offensive coordinator at Nebraska, Ohio State, Texas and NC State before taking the job at Coastal ahead of the 2023 season.
I’m assuming Vasko has a chip on his shoulder from not being recruited by Virginia.
This whole group is full of chips on shoulders of guys who think they should be playing big-time college football.
“You’ve got to respect everybody that you’re playing, but in particular, this bunch,” UVA coach Tony Elliott said. “I had a chance to coach against Coach Beck when he was at Ohio State and got a tremendous amount of respect for him. He’s done a great job.
“You’ve got a group that’s confident. They’re used to winning. They’ve been to four straight bowl games,” Elliott said. “In particular, our performance in the last 10 road games versus Power 4s, non-Power 5s, hasn’t been good. So, it’s more we’re just focusing on us, but having a healthy respect and understanding of who our opponent is.”
The must-win part of this for Virginia
The scuttlebutt in the preseason was that Elliott, coming off back-to-back three-win seasons in 2022 and 2023, would need to get Virginia into bowl contention in 2024 to keep his seat from getting hot.
The 27-13 loss to Maryland in Week 3 has UVA at 2-1, and after this one at Coastal, then a bye next week, the schedule really ramps up.
Using the ESPN Football Power Index as the guide, the final eight games, starting with Boston College (FPI: 23) are with teams ranked in the Top 60 (Virginia is currently 80th).
It’s fair to assume that Virginia will go into each as an underdog.
The remaining strength of schedule ranks 34th nationally, another illustration of the difficulties ahead.
The FPI gives UVA just a 20.4 percent chance of getting to six wins, and projects the final record at 4.3-7.7.
A win on Saturday gets us to three. The other three, looking at the schedule, could come from among North Carolina (FPI: 58, at home on Oct. 26), Pitt (FPI: 55, on the road on Nov. 9), SMU (FPI: 37, at home on Nov. 23), Boston College (FPI: 23, at home on Oct. 5) and Louisville (FPI: 13, at home on Oct. 12).
The I don’t think so games are Notre Dame (FPI: 7, on the road on Nov. 16), Clemson (FPI: 18, on the road on Oct. 19), and Virginia Tech (FPI: 39, on the road on Nov. 30).
Squeezing three wins out of those eight is going to be a job.
Four?
Details: Virginia at Coastal Carolina
Day/Time: Saturday, 2 p.m.
Location: Brooks Stadium (20,000)
Television: ACC Network • Jeff McCarragher (play-by-play), Nathan Ross (analyst), Joanne Bethea (sideline)
Radio: Virginia Sports Radio Network, Virginia Sports Mobile App, TuneIn App, SiriusXM Channel 111 or 202
Line: Virginia -3.5
Over/under: 54
Projected final score: UVA 28-24
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Chris Graham
