A few thoughts on Vladimir Putin, Ukraine, and how what Putin is aiming to achieve here with respect to international and U.S. domestic politics:
Putin appears emboldened by something. That something could be the prospect of a second coming of Donald Trump. Trump and Putin famously saw eye to eye, almost (wannabe) dictator to (actual) dictator. Putin, by pushing the Ukraine button, knows that he’s tilting U.S. domestic politics to weaken Joe Biden, which by definition strengthens the position of Trump and Republicans with the 2022 midterms looming.
What else is Putin emboldened by? The disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Putin is misreading that as a sign that the U.S. is shrinking from the world stage. Trump, in his final year, was pushing for a similar unilateral withdrawal. The feeling that Afghanistan was a lost cause was bipartisan, before Republicans decided that they could use it to bludgeon Biden as being weak. Putin, by pushing on Ukraine, is testing Biden’s will.
How does Putin react to Biden’s pushback? Biden isn’t backing down, rhetorically and otherwise, pledging to send troops to Eastern Europe. The number, for now, is more symbolic than anything, but Biden is signaling that the U.S. and the West won’t take Russia flexing its muscles in the East sitting down. The ball is back in Putin’s court now. Can he stand down without thinking he’ll appear, internationally and at home, that he’s standing down? Or, has he backed himself into a corner that only ends with a long-dormant Cold War going hot?
How does it all actually play it for Biden back home? I don’t think Biden is taking his stand because of midterms. Putin can’t be permitted to run roughshod over its neighbors in Eastern Europe and Asia. But undoubtedly, a failure of the U.S. to follow through would make Biden a guaranteed one-term president, in addition to inviting Putin to re-establish Russia’s Cold War borders and reach.
What does Xi Jinping think of all this? That it’s the greatest thing in the world.
Story by Chris Graham
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