Bracketology: I’m projecting UVA Baseball among the Last Four In

The latest update to the Baseball America projected NCAA Tournament field has the UVA Baseball team listed as the first of the First Four Out.

In the interest of making sense of things, I used BA’s latest projected field – as of today, Sunday, one day before the selection committee tells us who’s in – to rank, 1-16, the last eight teams that the experts there have making the field, and the first eight that will miss out.

The first group here is unofficial. I reviewed the computer resumes of the at-large teams that BA has getting three seeds, and these are the bottom four, in terms of average computer ranking (ACR) among the eight computer metrics (Moore, Priebe, Nolan RPI, Nolan ELO, Roundtable, Boyd, Massey, KPI).

BA’s Second to Last Four In

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• Kentucky: 29-24, ACR: 38.8
• Cincinnati: 32-24, ACR: 40.0
• Kansas State: 31-24, ACR: 44.9
• Miami: 31-24, ACR: 45.3

BA’s Last Four In

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• Southern Cal: 35-21, ACR: 43.5
• UConn: 38-21, ACR: 49.0
• Arizona State: 35-22, ACR: 33.4
• Troy: 39-21, ACR: 64.5

BA’s First Four Out

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• UVA: 32-18, ACR: 43.0
• Cal Poly: 40-17, ACR: 34.4
• Xavier: 32-27, ACR: 72.5
• Nebraska: 31-27, ACR: 52.0

BA’s Next Four Out

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• UTRGV: 36-18, ACR: 56.1
• Notre Dame: 32-21, ACR: 48.0
• Jacksonville State: 37-24, ACR: 61.8
• Texas A&M: 30-26, ACR: 33.5

Second look

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Re-ranking these teams 1-16, based on their ACRs, we get this:

1. Arizona State: 35-22, ACR: 33.4
2. Texas A&M: 30-26, ACR: 33.5
3. Cal Poly: 40-17, ACR: 34.4
4. Kentucky: 29-24, ACR: 38.8
5. Cincinnati: 32-24, ACR: 40.0
6. UVA: 32-18, ACR: 43.0
7. Southern Cal: 35-21, ACR: 43.5
8. Kansas State: 31-24, ACR: 44.9
9. Miami: 31-24, ACR: 45.3
10. Notre Dame: 32-21, ACR: 48.0
11. UConn: 38-21, ACR: 49.0
12. Nebraska: 31-27, ACR: 52.0
13. UTRGV: 36-18, ACR: 56.1
14. Jacksonville State: 37-24, ACR: 61.8
15. Troy: 39-21, ACR: 64.5
16. Xavier: 32-27, ACR: 72.5

I’ve got UVA just inside the cut line, among the Last Four In – with Kansas State the last team in, Southern Cal next, then our ‘Hoos third of the last four.

It’s tight, is what I’m getting at.