Bracket Watch: How many teams can the ACC get into the NCAA Tournament?

Duke, obviously, is a given, but after the Blue Devils, how many programs can the ACC reasonably expect to get into the 2022 NCAA Tournament?

Four seems doable. Six? It’s possible.

Let’s break it down.

Duke

Record: 19-4 (9-3 ACC)
BPI: 9
NET: 11
Sagarin: 9
KPI: 17
RPI: 21
KenPom: 10
ELO: 12
Avg: 12.7

Q1: 5-1
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 6-0

SOS: 45

Prospects: Lock. Duke’s next month is more about seeding. Right now, Duke is maybe a three seed.

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North Carolina

Record: 17-7 (9-4 ACC)
BPI: 31
NET: 41
Sagarin: 30
KPI: 44
RPI: 31
KenPom: 43
ELO: 27
Avg: 35.3

Q1: 0-7
Q2: 4-0
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 5-0

SOS: 35

Prospects: Almost certainly in, not quite a lock. No wins in Q1. An eight or nine seed right now.

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Wake Forest

Record: 20-5 (10-4 ACC)
BPI: 29
NET: 32
Sagarin: 37
KPI: 43
RPI: 55
KenPom: 28
ELO: 35
Avg: 37.0

Q1: 1-3
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 5-0
Q4: 9-0

SOS: 152

Prospects: Hard to imagine they’re not in. Slotting as a 10 seed.

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Virginia Tech

Record: 14-10 (6-7 ACC)
BPI: 21
NET: 43
Sagarin: 35
KPI: 94
RPI: 95
KenPom: 35
ELO: 60
Avg: 54.7

Q1: 0-4
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 3-2
Q4: 6-0

SOS: 106

Prospects: Work to do. The computers love the Hokies despite a weak strength of schedule rating and zero Q1 wins.

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Notre Dame

Record: 17-7 (10-3 ACC)
BPI: 65
NET: 63
Sagarin: 59
KPI: 57
RPI: 49
KenPom: 66
ELO: 26
Avg: 56.4

Q1: 2-5
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 4-0

SOS: 81

Prospects: Work to do, despite being tied for first in the ACC. Strange, eh? Can’t afford any hiccups.

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Miami

Record: 17-7 (9-4 ACC)
BPI: 72
NET: 72
Sagarin: 74
KPI: 32
RPI: 47
KenPom: 71
ELO: 44
Avg: 58.9

Q1: 2-1
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 4-0

SOS: 56

Prospects: Work to do. I don’t get the computers’ lack of love for Miami. Two Q1 wins, a solid SOS, and yet the computers have them sixth among our ACC teams. Very odd.

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Virginia

Record: 15-9 (9-5 ACC)
BPI: 59
NET: 80
Sagarin: 57
KPI: 71
RPI: 83
KenPom: 74
ELO: 36
Avg: 65.7

Q1: 2-4
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 2-3
Q4: 7-0

SOS: 95

Prospects: Lots of work still to do. Q1 games with Duke and at Virginia Tech are huge.

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Syracuse

Record: 13-11 (6-6 ACC)
BPI: 55
NET: 83
Sagarin: 55
KPI: 102
RPI: 94
KenPom: 73
ELO: 67
Avg: 75.8

Q1: 0-5
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 5-5
Q4: 4-0

SOS: 53

Prospects: Life support. But Jim Boeheim has lived on this edge for years now.

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Florida State

Record: 13-10 (6-7 ACC)
BPI: 79
NET: 93
Sagarin: 71
KPI: 79
RPI: 72
KenPom: 97
ELO: 82
Avg: 81.9

Q1: 2-3
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 3-3
Q4: 5-1

SOS: 67

Prospects: Teetering, at best. FSU picked the wrong time to go on a five-game bender.

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Story by Chris Graham