Be careful what you wish for, right? Virginia, after the 77-51 beatdown at Duke two Saturdays ago, wanted a second chance; and the ACC Tournament is giving it to us.
The first lesson I hope the UVA side learned is, it’s healthy to respect the #1 team in the land, but don’t approach them like they’re the Dream Team, and ask for autographs and selfies.
Virginia, in the ugly loss in Durham on Feb. 28, seemed to let Duke’s reputation on defense keep the ball out of the lane more than the Duke defenders themselves did.
Game Details
- Duke (31-2, 19-1 ACC, NET: 1) vs. Virginia (29-4, 17-3 ACC, NET: 12)
- Day/Time: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
Forecast
- KenPom: Duke 74-66
- BartTorvik: Duke 72-65
- ESPN BPI: Duke +9.8
It’s not like Duke has anybody on the back end like the UVA kids have to go up against in practice every day.
Get the ball into the paint to break down the defense – that needs to be Priority #1.
#2: what kind of minutes can we get from Ugonna Onyenso tonight?
Onyenso is averaging 12.5 points and six blocks per game in the ACC Tournament, but he’s not going to be able to just sit back under the rim against Duke, which won’t have Patrick Ngongba at the five.
Archives: Duke 77, Virginia 51 (Feb. 28)
- UVA Basketball: #1 Duke eviscerates #11 Virginia from the tip in 77-51 beatdown
- UVA Basketball: Man, Duke put quite the thumping on our ‘Hoos there
With Ngongba nursing a foot injury, Jon Scheyer has been going with four-guard lineups around 6’9” freshman four Cameron Boozer, who isn’t a good matchup for anybody at the college level, so, not casting aspersions here, but.
Scheyer has been using 6’9” senior Maliq Brown and 6’8” freshman Nikolas Khamenia as small-ball fours alongside Boozer.
Brown doesn’t present much on the offensive end, so when he’s in the lineup, Onyenso can sit back in the paint as a rim protector, and help Thijs de Ridder on post doubles on Boozer; but Khamenia is adept from three (33.7 percent), so, I can see Ryan Odom wanting to have Johann Grunloh on the floor when Khamenia is out there.
If I’m Odom, I might also have in the defensive game plan something that we saw Luke Loucks use against Duke on Thursday, when he stuck a center on Cayden Boozer, because the other Boozer can’t shoot from the perimeter – and he went 0-of-5 from three to make that strategy work.
I’m not saying that we see Odom puts a center on the other Boozer, but you can sag off him on the perimeter, and use his defender as a helper.
Duke rotation
- 6’9” freshman Cameron Boozer: 22.8 ppg, 10.3 rebounds/g, 4.1 assists/g, 57.9% FG, 41.8% 3FG, 7.1 FTAs/g
- 6’6” sophomore Isaiah Evans: 14.7 ppg, 42.5% FG, 36.1% 3FG
- 6’4” freshman Cayden Boozer: 6.8 ppg, 2.7 assists/g, 48.8% FG, 27.6% 3FG
- 6’8” freshman Dame Sarr: 6.2 ppg, 39.8% FG, 32.1% 3FG
- 6’8” freshman Nikolas Khamenia: 5.7 ppg, 3.4 rebounds/g, 45.2% FG, 33.7% 3FG
- 6’9” senior Maliq Brown: 4.8 ppg, 4.9 rebounds/g, 61.0% FG, 17.2% 3FG
- 6’6” sophomore Darren Harris: 3.7 ppg, 38.6% FG, 35.9% 3FG
Virginia rotation
- 6’9” freshman Thijs de Ridder: 15.8 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 51.4% FG, 34.3% 3FG
- 6’5” senior Malik Thomas: 12.3 ppg, 4.0 rebounds/g, 41.0% FG, 34.5% 3FG
- 6’6” junior Sam Lewis: 10.6 ppg, 3.6 rebounds/g, 45.5% FG, 40.0% 3FG
- 5’10” freshman Chance Mallory: 9.6 ppg, 3.8 rebounds/g, 3.5 assists/g, 42.53% FG, 35.6% 3FG
- 6’3” senior Jacari White: 8.9 ppg, 45.1% FG, 42.8% 3FG
- 7’0” freshman Johann Grunloh: 7.3 ppg, 5.3 rebounds/g, 2.2 blocks/g, 53.2% FG, 35.0% 3FG
- 7’0” senior Ugonna Onyenso: 6.7 ppg, 4.9 rebounds/g, 2.8 blocks/g, 56.5% FG, 28.6% 3FG
- 6’4” senior Dallin Hall: 5.8 ppg, 4.4 assists/g, 42.2% FG, 33.3% 3FG
- 6’7” senior Devin Tillis: 4.5 ppg, 40.0% FG, 37.7% 3FG
Analytics: Duke vs. UVA
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Virginia offense: 1.223 PPP (28)
Duke defense: 0.887 PPP (1)
Duke offense: 1.280 PPP (4)
Virginia defense: 0.958 PPP (16)
Rebounds
Offensive-Virginia: 38.0% (10)
Defensive-Duke: 75.4% (8)
Offensive-Duke: 37.7% (11)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.4% (91)
Turnover rate
Virginia offense: 15.9% (128)
Duke defense: 18.1% (95)
Duke offense: 15.7% (118)
Virginia defense: 15.6% (249)
Shooting zones-Virginia offense vs. Duke defense
Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics
Virginia in the paint: 16.5/29.1, 56.9%
Virginia threes: 10.2/29.2, 36.0%
Virginia FTs: 20.1 FTA/g, 72.3%
Duke D in the paint: 12.1/24.2, 49.9%
Duke D on threes: 8.0/26.5, 30.4%
Duke opponent FTs: 13.6 FTA/g
Shooting zones-Duke offense vs. Virginia defense
Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics
Duke in the paint: 18.7/29.8, 62.5%
Duke threes: 9.1/25.9, 35.2%
Duke FTs: 22.1 FTA/g, 72.2%
Virginia D in the paint: 13.7/28.9, 47.3%
Virginia D on threes: 6.8/22.1, 30.8%
Virginia opponent FTs: 19.5 FTA/g
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Chris Graham
