By Fred O’Neal
Virginia’s population doesn’t grow by accident. Every year, the Census Bureau tracks three forces that determine whether a state gets bigger or smaller: births versus deaths, people arriving from other countries, and people moving in or out from other states. In Virginia’s case, all three have been pointing in the same direction for over two decades — and the data tells a clear, if sometimes uneven, story of steady growth.
The big picture: A quarter-century of growth
Virginia has now crossed 8.88 million residents, making it the 12th most populous state in the country. That’s an increase of more than 248,000 people since the 2020 Census alone. Zoom out further, and the pattern becomes even more striking: since the year 2000, Virginia’s population has grown in every single year — 25 consecutive years without a single decline.
The pace of that growth hasn’t been constant, though. The single biggest jump came between 2003 and 2004, when the state added roughly 108,600 residents in twelve months. The slowest year of the century came between 2021 and 2022, when Virginia gained just 21,000 residents, a slowdown tied to the broader disruptions of the pandemic era, which temporarily dampened both migration and hiring across the country.
More recently, the pace has picked back up. Virginia grew by about 60,500 residents between 2024 and 2025 alone — more people than live in the entire city of Harrisonburg — a 0.69% annual increase. Over the full decade from 2015 to 2025, the state’s population grew by 5.8%, a bit behind the national growth rate of 6.2% over the same period, but still a substantial, sustained gain.
The three ingredients of population change
Demographers break population change into three measurable components, and looking at Virginia’s most recent numbers shows exactly how each one contributes.
- Natural increase (births minus deaths). Between 2024 and 2025, births outnumbered deaths in Virginia by about 13,800, keeping natural increase modestly positive. Looking back further, natural increase contributed nearly 78,400 people to Virginia’s growth since 2020 — about 31.5% of the state’s total population gain over that period. Falling mortality rates since 2021 have played a role in keeping this number positive.
- Immigration. International migration has become an increasingly important driver of Virginia’s growth, and it was the primary force behind the state’s most recent annual increase. The number of foreign-born Virginia residents grew by 22.6% between 2013 and 2023 alone, reflecting the state’s pull for workers in government, defense, tech, and healthcare.
- Net migration (domestic and international combined). Since 2020, net migration has added roughly 170,300 people to Virginia — accounting for a full 68.5% of the state’s total growth. That’s the category most directly tied to the moving industry: every household that packs a truck and crosses state lines into or out of Virginia shows up in these figures eventually.
For families and businesses making that move, the process typically starts with lining up dependable interstate movers who can manage a long-distance relocation without turning it into a logistical nightmare. Booking trends among long-haul relocation companies tend to track closely with these same domestic migration numbers — when net migration into Virginia rises, so does demand for cross-country moving services.
Not all of Virginia grows the same way
Statewide totals mask a lot of local variation, and Virginia’s 133 counties and independent cities tell very different stories depending on where you look.
Between 2020 and 2025, 93 localities — about 70% of the state — saw population growth, while 119 localities, or 90%, had positive net migration even in places where deaths outpaced births. Fairfax County, Virginia’s most populous locality, had the largest numeric population growth of any county in the state, adding over 8,000 new residents in a single recent year. Poquoson led the state in percentage growth, up 3.3% in just one year, while Buchanan County saw the steepest percentage decline, down 1.2%.
Northern Virginia remains the state’s dominant growth engine. The region’s population is now 79% larger than it was in 1990, and it accounted for just over half of the state’s total population growth between 2010 and 2020. Within Northern Virginia, Spotsylvania County has seen some of the sharpest gains, up 8.5% in recent years, while the broader region grew 2.5% overall.
But Northern Virginia isn’t the only story. The Richmond region has quietly become one of the state’s strongest growth markets outside the D.C. suburbs. The city of Richmond itself added nearly 55,700 residents — a 4.2% increase — and the surrounding metro area has benefited from growth in smaller, formerly rural communities pushing outward from the urban core. That expansion has kept movers in Richmond consistently busy, as both young professionals drawn to the city’s job market and families relocating to its growing suburbs fuel steady demand for local and regional moving services.
Smaller markets are growing too. Winchester’s population jumped 5.0% between 2020 and 2024, while Charlottesville and Harrisonburg posted more modest gains of 2.6% and 2.4%, respectively — proof that Virginia’s growth isn’t confined to a single corridor.
Rural Virginia, meanwhile, presents a more complicated picture. Rural localities made up about 9% of the state’s total population in 2025 and, on the surface, appear to be struggling: deaths outnumbered births by more than 22,000 across these areas since 2020. Yet rural Virginia still grew overall, adding roughly 12,500 residents over that period, because net migration into these communities — more than 34,500 people — more than offset the natural population decline. It’s a reminder that migration, not just births and deaths, is now the dominant force shaping population change even in the state’s least populated corners.
What the trend lines suggest going forward
Nothing guarantees Virginia’s 25-year growth streak continues indefinitely — the sharp slowdown between 2021 and 2022 shows how quickly economic disruption can cool migration and hiring. But the underlying fundamentals remain solidly positive: births still outpace deaths, immigration continues to be a significant growth driver, and net migration keeps adding tens of thousands of new residents every year across nearly every corner of the state.
For anyone tracking these numbers on the ground — real estate professionals, employers, city planners, or the moving companies handling the actual relocations — the pattern is clear. Growth in Virginia isn’t one uniform wave; it’s Northern Virginia’s suburban expansion, Richmond’s quiet resurgence, smaller cities like Winchester and Charlottesville picking up steam, and even rural counties holding steady through migration despite natural decline. Whether a household is making a short move across town or a long haul from out of state, Virginia movers are increasingly busy precisely because these underlying demographic forces show no sign of reversing anytime soon.
This content is provided for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice. AFP editorial staff were not involved in the creation of this content.
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