Football odds can look more complex than they really are to a beginner bettor. Odds such as 1.50, 2.40 or 5/2 can appear confusing at first glance if you do not understand how bookmakers show probability and possible payouts. So, how do football, known as soccer in the United States, odds work? Odds are a way of measuring the likelihood of an event occurring, and the potential return from a bet on that event, in their simplest form.
Most football betting markets are based on odds, so it is important to understand the odds. The odds for any market you’re looking at – match winner, total goals, Asian handicap etc. – allows you to compare potential outcomes and judge the value it offers. The final score will remain a mystery, but you can see how much each outcome is valued in the market.
What do football betting odds mean?
Football odds are the price of a certain outcome. This could be a home win, a draw, an away win, the total number of goals or any other market. The lower the odds the more certain the outcome . The higher the odds the less certain the outcome . Higher odds mean a larger potential payout, because the outcome is less likely to happen.
For example a team with decimal odds of 1.50 is a stronger favorite than one priced at 4.00. But that doesn’t mean the favorite will win. Odds aren’t certainty. They’re probability and price. For more background on betting products and how they work, you can also visit the Vodds Help Site.
How to read football odds and probability
When you can match the price shown with the underlying probability, understanding football odds becomes much easier. Odds are not just a number that you use to calculate your potential return; they are a reflection of how probable the betting market thinks an outcome is. The lower the odds, the higher the implied probability. The higher the odds, the less likely the market sees the outcome.
Odds of 2.00 (decimal odds) mean a probability of about 50%. Odds of 4.00 mean a probability of about 25%. That does not mean that the outcome will occur that percentage of the time. The figure is an implicit probability, derived from the price given and can also be affected by bookmaker margins. Converting odds to probability is still helpful so that you can understand what a price really means and compare different betting options.
Fractional odds
Fractional odds are popular in the UK and Ireland. 3/2 means you could make £3 profit for every £2 you bet. So a £20 bet at 3/2 would return a profit of £30, plus the original £20 stake, if successful. So the total return would be £50.
You can also change fractional odds into probability. For 3/2, divide 2 by (3+2) to get an implied probability of 40%.
Decimal odds
Decimal odds are used throughout Europe and are particularly easy to use, as the number shown already includes the returned stake. Multiplying your stake by the decimal odds will give you the possible return.
A £20 wager at 2.50 would pay out £50 if it wins. That is £20 of your stake and £30 profit. To find implied probability, divide 1 by the decimal odds. Odds of 2.50 therefore reflect a probability of 40%.
| Decimal odds | Approx. implied probability | £10 total return |
| 1.50 | 66.7% | £15 |
| 2.00 | 50% | £20 |
| 2.50 | 40% | £25 |
| 4.00 | 25% | £40 |
If you want another beginner-focused example, see this guide to football betting odds explained.
Why football odds change before kick-off
Football odds are not static. Prices may change as new information becomes available or the betting market reacts. Market demand can change and have an effect on the price of an outcome, as can team news, injuries, confirmed line-ups, weather conditions and more.
What happens if a key striker is suddenly unavailable before a game? The odds of that team winning could improve because the market now thinks that is less likely to happen. At the same time, the odds for the other team could shorten. This scenario means the price on offer a few days before kick-off may be different to the price just before the match kicks off.
What football odds can tell you about a match
Odds are a snapshot of the market’s feelings on a match. If one team is 1.40 and the other 7.00, then there is clearly a favorite. When both teams are around 2.50, the market expects a more even contest.
But odds are not predictions. They are market prices affected by probability, bookmaker margins and betting activity. One of the most useful football odds tips for beginners is to read odds as information rather than as a guarantee of what will happen.
Understanding football odds in practice
The easiest way to understand how do odds work in football is to compare the potential return with the probability behind the price. Before you place a bet, check the odds, work out what your stake could return and think about whether you believe the real probability of the outcome is higher or lower than the market suggests.
For example, decimal odds of 2.00 mean something along the lines of a 50% chance. If your estimate suggests that the probability of that outcome is substantially better than that, the price may look attractive. That doesn’t make the bet a sure winner, but it’s how bettors work out if the price on offer is good value.
Football odds are simply a reflection of price and probability. Lower odds usually indicate a more likely outcome with a smaller possible return, while higher odds indicate a less likely outcome with a larger possible return. Betting on football becomes considerably easier once you learn to read numbers in both fractional and decimal forms, compute returns, and understand implied probability.
This content is provided for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional advice. AFP editorial staff were not involved in the creation of this content.
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