Don’t sleep on this Notre Dame team because of the 2-5 record in the ACC; the Irish are 74th in the RPI, 82nd in KenPom and 83rd in the NET, with two Quad 1 wins, at TCU and at Stanford.
I’m giving them a boost, because that’s what I do.
Notre Dame had lost five straight, four in a row by double-digits, before posting a narrow 68-64 home win over Boston College on Saturday.
A big issue is having to make do without leading scorer Markus Burton (18.5 ppg, 3.7 assists/g, 48.9% FG, 30.6% 3FG), who broke his right ankle on a drive to the basket in the OT win at TCU on Dec. 5.
Burton isn’t expected back until mid-February, at the earliest.
The Irish have gone 4-6 in his absence.
Burton historically had good numbers against Virginia: he averaged 17.7 points and 5.0 assists in three games in the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons, shooting 57.6 percent from the floor and 63.6 percent from three.
The rotation
6’7” freshman Jalen Haralson (14.7 ppg, 2.3 assists/g, 48.8% FG, 23.8% 3FG, 5.6 FTAs/g, 25.7 minutes/g) has stepped in for Burton as the starter at the point, with Logan Imes (4.1 ppg, 34.9% FG, 29.8% 3FG, 19.9 minutes/g), a 6’4” junior, has picking up minutes off the bench at the one.
Braeden Shrewsberry, a 6’4” junior, is the other main scoring option (11.2 ppg, 41.6% FG, 41.1% 3FG, 30.4 minutes/g).
Shrewsberry had 22 points (8-of-17 FG, 2-of-9 3FG, 4-of-6 FT) in the win over BC; Haralson scored 17 (8-of-13 FG, 0-of-1 3FG, 1-of-4 FT).
Contributors
- 6’5” sophomore Cole Certa: 9.2 ppg, 35.1% FG, 36.4% 3FG, 21.7 minutes/g
- 6’8” senior Carson Towt: 6.5 ppg, 9.9 rebounds/g, 57.7% FG, 25.9 minutes/g
- 6’6” sophomore Sir Mohammed: 5.7 ppg, 42.6% FG, 27.6% 3FG, 15.4 minutes/g
- 6’10” freshman Brady Koehler: 4.2 ppg, 44.6% FG, 40.7% 3FG, 11.9 minutes/g
- 6’11” sophomore Garrett Sundra: 3.9 ppg, 3.6 rebounds/g, 42.9% FG, 32.6% 3FG, 19.5 minutes/g
- 6’7” freshman Ryder Frost: 3.1 ppg, 43.2% FG, 38.2% 3FG, 6.4 minutes/g
Analytics
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Offense
Notre Dame: 1.136 PPP (109)
Virginia: 1.242 PPP (16)
Defense
Notre Dame: 1.036 PPP (68)
Virginia: 0.981 PPP (18)
Tempo
Notre Dame: 65.0 (300)
Virginia: 65.4 (281)
Effective field goal percentage (offense)
Notre Dame: 52.0% (109)
Virginia: 55.8% (38)
Effective field goal percentage (defense)
Notre Dame: 49.5% (100)
Virginia: 44.3% (6)
Bench minutes
Notre Dame: 38.4% (50)
Virginia: 35.8% (109)
Keys to Odom Ball
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Twos (offense)
Notre Dame: 51.3% (193)
Virginia: 56.3% (55)
Twos (defense)
Notre Dame: 51.6% (190)
Virginia: 44.0% (7)
Threes (offense)
Notre Dame: 35.1% (108)
Virginia: 36.7% (45)
Threes (defense)
Notre Dame: 31.3% (70)
Virginia: 29.8% (25)
Rebounds (offense)
Notre Dame: 33.5% (102)
Virginia: 40.8% (3)
Rebounds (defense)
Notre Dame: 75.2% (10)
Virginia: 70.0% (143)
Turnover rate (offense)
Notre Dame: 17.4% (208)
Virginia: 15.9% (104)
Turnover rate (defense)
Notre Dame: 14.2% (334)
Virginia: 15.9% (256)
Game Details
Virginia (16-3, 5-2 ACC, NET: 14) at Notre Dame (11-9, 2-5 ACC, NET: 83)
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Forecast
KenPom: Virginia 74-67
BartTorvik: Virginia 74-65
ESPN BPI: Virginia +5.5
UVA Basketball archives
- UVA Basketball: Carolina attacked the paint, ‘Hoos had no response
- UVA Basketball: Virginia slugs out 72-68 win at SMU to improve to 16-2
- UVA Basketball: McKneely goes for 23, but ‘Hoos get the Top 25 road win
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos clamp down on D on Stanford in 70-55 win
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos stifle Cal with gritty second half D, win 84-60
- UVA Basketball: Virginia blows out NC State, 76-61, in Saturday ACC matinee
- UVA Basketball: Hokies ride advantage at stripe to upset of #21 ‘Hoos
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Chris Graham
