With apologies to Jim Mora here for the headline, JMU, at 9-1, has a 52.4 percent chance to get a College Football Playoff invite, the best of the three teams from the Group of 5 ranked in the national polls at the moment.
It all seems to hinge on the Dukes’ ability to get past Washington State this weekend in Harrisonburg.
JMU opens as a 13.5-point favorite over Wazzu (5-5), which played UVA tough last month in Charlottesville, leading most of the night before the ‘Hoos rallied in the fourth for a 22-20 win, a week after the Cougars had led at Ole Miss, ranked #5 this week, in a 24-21 loss.
Since the loss at Virginia, has beaten Toledo and Louisiana Tech, and lost at Oregon State – that one was bad: Oregon State is 2-7 this season.
Beat Washington State, win at Coastal Carolina (6-4, 5-2 Sun Belt), then win the Sun Belt title game – either over Southern Miss (7-3, 5-1 Sun Belt), Troy (6-4, 4-2 Sun Belt) or Arkansas State (5-5, 4-2 Sun Belt) – and the ESPN Playoff Predictor says JMU has an 81 percent shot of being the Group of 5 qualifier in the CFP.
Lose to Wazzu, and it’s a 15 percent chance, even with wins over Coastal and whoever they’d play in the Sun Belt title game.
For Virginia, similarly, it’s win out – over Virginia Tech Nov. 29, and then in the ACC title game – and you’re in.
Curiously, lose to Virginia Tech, still get into the ACC title game, then win there, and the predictor tells us Virginia’s probability is 61 percent, suggesting a possibility that a second Group of 5 team could jump the ‘Hoos as a 10-3 ACC champ.
Both UVA and JMU are likely to be either the 11th or 12th seed in the 12-team field, which would have them traveling for first-round games against the likes of Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon and Alabama.
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Chris Graham
