If you think ads for statewide races in Virginia are especially negative, take a breath, there’s still three more weeks of messaging until Election Day, and it’s likely to get worse.
Only two states will elect a new governor on Nov. 4, New Jersey and Virginia, meaning a lot of money is being thrown at the two candidates to control the narrative until the mid-term elections in 2026.
The results could prove to be a bellwether of how popular or unpopular President Donald Trump’s agenda is with Americans. While the Democrats in both states had early leads, two polls suggest the gubernatorial races could be tightening.
“Both Republicans and Democrats have tried to nationalize the 2025 Virginia governor’s race by framing this as an election about Donald Trump, government cutbacks and parental rights in Virginia public schools,” said Cayce Myers, a political communications expert at Virginia Tech.
Recent polling data showed that 44 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump.
So far, the government shutdown has not dramatically shifted his approval ratings though it could as the shutdown continues. A Washington Post poll found that 47 percent of those polled blame Republicans and Trump for the shutdown; 30 percent blame Democrats.
Trump deflects any talk of negative polls as “fake news” and insists he is, of course, the most popular president in history, even when the data supports the opposite.
Inside the Virginia race
Virginia elected a Republican slate of candidates in 2021 proving conservative candidates can still win in Virginia.
In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris received 51.83 percent of votes in Virginia; Trump received 46.05 percent of votes.
Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate in Virginia, has raised more than double that of her opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican at the top of the ticket and current lieutenant governor.
Spanberger has held a comfortable lead throughout the campaign, but some in the party worry that a recent scandal involving Jay Jones, the Democratic attorney general nominee, could affect everyone on the ticket.
ICYMI
- Mailbag | Counterpoint on Jay Jones: ‘These texts have been floating around for years’
- Dem AG nominee Jay Jones releases new statement on Todd Gilbert texts
- Immediately, if not sooner | Jay Jones needs to end his attorney general campaign
Because of the national stakes, the negative ads have increased this election cycle.
“While attack ads are nothing new to American politics, they have proliferated in the past few cycles in Virginia because of the polarization of the electorate,” Myers said. “Though Virginia has become a less competitive state for Republicans, the 2021 election demonstrated that Republicans can still win statewide races.”
In the 2021 general election, current Governor Glenn Youngkin won the state with 50.57 percent of the vote; his Democratic challenger, Terry McAuliffe, received 48.64 percent of the vote.
Breaking down the money
Virginia’s statewide elections this year are on track to break new records in spending on political advertising.
Spanberger has raised more than $40 million in contributions for her campaign. Her latest finance summary shows approximately $12 million on hand.
Top donors include:
- $5 million: Democratic Governors Association
- $1,041,460: VoteVets
- $983,794: Democratic Party of Virginia
- $851,941: Virginia League of Conservation Voters
- $665,000: Clean Virginia Fund
- $500,000: American Federation of Teachers
- $500,000: Sports Betting Alliance
In contrast, Earle-Sears has raised approximately $16 million to date. Her latest finance summary shows nearly $5 million of cash on hand.
Top donors include:
- $500,000: RGA Right Direction PAC
- $426,000: Dominion Energy
- $390,950: Republican State Leadership Committee
- $214,824: Spirit of Virginia
- $189,735: Republican Party of Virginia
Related stories
- The 20 | MAGA House seats that Virginia Democrats could flip in the 2025 cycle
- Pants on fire | MAGA House candidate tries to spin Spanberger ‘rage’
Videos: Snapshot of campaign ads
Support AFP
Share
Crystal Graham
