State Sen. John McGuire, up by 316 votes on Wednesday morning, with just the mail-in and provisional votes left to count in counties and cities up and down the far-flung Fifth District, is presenting himself as the winner in his bitter congressional primary race with incumbent Bob Good.
“There are still a few votes left to count, but it’s clear that all paths end with a victory,” McGuire wrote in a series of statements posted to his campaign Twitter account early Wednesday morning.
The counting did tighten up the margin overnight, and the two candidates are now within a half-percent of each other, which, if that were to remain the case, would trigger a state-funded recount.
McGuire and Good both being election-denying MAGA Republicans, you can bet that we’re not only going to go the recount route, but also that, you probably shouldn’t expect the battle between the two to end there.
“The entire DC Swamp was aligned against us with over $10 million in attack ads, but with your help we were able to make this race too close to call,” Good wrote in a lengthy message to his supporters on Twitter Tuesday night.
“We are still waiting for the results of mail-in ballots and provisional ballots. We are doing what we can to ensure we have teams of observers and legal counsel to ensure all the votes are properly counted in the coming days. No matter the outcome, you’ve shown the DC Swamp that you won’t back down from standing for what’s right. Keep the faith and don’t stop fighting now,” Good said.
Good has the distinct disadvantage of being the guy in second place, even if by a sliver – think: Al Gore-George W. Bush in 2000.
It doesn’t seem likely that there are enough mail-in and provisional votes still outstanding to give Good a net gain of 316 votes, and recounts in the digital era are almost always perfunctory exercises.
And if Good were to somehow make up the difference and take a small lead, there’s the issue with who is backing McGuire, and his rhetoric on the legitimacy of elections.
Disgraced ex-president Donald Trump hasn’t yet weighed in on the McGuire-Good race, amid a flurry of posts to his flailing Truth Social site claiming victory on Primary Tuesday for several Trump-endorsed House and Senate GOP candidates, including, curiously, incumbent Virginia Republicans Rob Wittman, Jen Kiggans, Morgan Griffith and Ben Cline, who weren’t on the ballot on Tuesday, because they didn’t have opponents.
That’s one way to work the ol’ batting average up a tick, by counting hits in at bats that never happened.
If and when Trump intervenes in the McGuire-Good race, it’s going to be to declare victory for himself, and by extension, McGuire, to deliver the final blow to the nail in Good’s coffin.
There’s going to be a recount, and more back-and-forth between the campaigns and the candidates, but effectively, this one is over; we’re just waiting for Trump to swing the hammer.
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Chris Graham
