WaPo referendum poll has ‘Yes’ at +9: ‘Mixed signs,’ ‘alarm bells’ for Ds?

Gotta love the headlines on the Washington Post poll on the Virginia redistricting referendum, which makes things sound dire for Democrats.

• “Poll shows mixed signs for Democratic push to gain seats in Congress.”
• “New poll comes with alarm bells for Democrats ahead of redistricting vote.”
• “Virginia voters narrowly favor redistricting referendum.”
• “Virginia redistricting poll shows narrow support.”

So, what, does the poll show us at 50/50, or, gulp, looking up at the other side here?

No.

Among registered voters, it’s 53-44 in favor of “Yes.”

Among “likely voters,” it’s 52-47 in favor of “Yes.”

The world is coming to an end, I know.

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ICYMI

• Shady MAGA PAC back at it again, with another race-baiting referendum mailer

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My first thought here is to revisit the last round of polling done before the most recent election in Virginia, last November.

Christopher Newport University, you may remember, had it Spanberger +7, and the final RealClearPolitics average was Spanberger +10.

My MAGA detractors were writing me to suggest Election Night was going to unskew things in their direction.

An upset was possible, was the plea.

The final tally: Spanberger +15.2.

This is that.

Now, let’s consider how Republicans, like, oh, let’s just say, for sake of argument, Ben Cline, would be spinning things if this WaPo poll had things at “No” +9 among all registered voters, and “No” +5 among “likely voters.”

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ICYMI

• Ben Cline announces launch of ‘grassroots effort’ to save his job in Congress

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Here’s the problem for them: the polls here haven’t been +5 or +9 Republican in forever.

Democrats have won Virginia in each presidential cycle dating back to 2008 – meaning, Donald Trump is 0-for-3 here.

The one win for Republicans in a statewide election in the last decade-and-a-half, in 2021, was Glenn Youngkin +1.96.

Republicans don’t know how to brag about being ahead by five to nine points in a poll in Virginia, because they’re never there.

They have to spin being down by five to nine points as, Well, we’re close!

The mainstream media, bending the knee, as usual, in Trump 2.0, is all too willing to be compliant there – as was the case last year, when you’d see headlines about the Spanberger/Earle-Sears race being within a couple of points in the spring and summer, just because.

Looking at the internals of the WaPo poll that is being sold to us as being full of “mixed signs” and “alarm bells” for Democrats, we learn that Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents are 91 percent on the “Yes” side, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are 89 percent on the “No” side, and true independents are.

Wait for it.

Plus-10 on the “Yes” side.

But the WaPo analysis tells us that this is “down from the 20-point margin by which they favored Spanberger last year.”

Dear effin’ lord.

I’d like to do a deeper dive into the guts of this poll, but I ain’t givin’ Trump-lovin’ oligarch Jeff Bezos a dime.

Am I suggesting that Bezos has his thumb on the scale to even make this look like “Yes” +5.

Absolutely.