UVA Football coach Tony Elliott is adamant that the problem isn’t the quarterback, but he conceded after Friday night’s loss to Duke, in which Beau Pribula was once again underwhelming, that he would look at the film.
He might want to look at the data.
I compiled data from Pro Football Focus to compare the 2025 performance of Chandler Morris to the 2026 performance of Beau Pribula.
The topline numbers look close
- Pribula has a 63.6% completion rate and averages 7.3 yards per attempt
- Morris, in 2025, had a 64.5% completion rate and averaged 6.9 yards per attempt
Analysis: I’d actually go with a slight edge in the topline numbers to Pribula.
Factors outside the QB’s control
Offensive line play
Here, we’ll use PFF rankings for team pass blocking.
- 2026: grade- 81.4, team pass block rank-10
- 2025: grade-64.8, team pass block rank-83
Analysis: I mean, you can see it, right?
Receiver play
Again, PFF rankings for the receiver, tight ends and backs in the passing game.
- 2026: grade-74.8, team receiving rank-39
- 2025: grade-67.9, team receiving rank-85
Analysis: No one would argue that last year’s group was better, but the grades are closer than I would have expected, just from having watched the two groups.
Pressure dropbacks
Beau Pribula
- pressured on 32.3% of snaps
- 5% completion rate, 5.4 yards/attempt
- 3% sacks-per-pressure rate
Chandler Morris
- pressured on 31.9 percent of snaps
- 7% completion rate, 5.4 yards/attempt
- 2% sack-to-pressure rate
Analysis: Similar pressure rates, similar productivity when they get passes off against pressure, but Pribula is more than three times more likely to be sacked when facing pressure.
That’s not on the QB?
Depth
Beau Pribula
- Behind LOS: 15.0% of attempts, 92.9% completion rate, 6.4 yards/attempt
- 0-9: 42.2% of attempts, 82.3% completion rate, 7.4 yards/attempt
- 10-19: 18.7% of attempts, 45.7% completion rate, 7.5 yards/attempt
- 20+: 15.0% of attempts, 42.9% completion rate, 12.1 yards/attempt
Chandler Morris
- Behind LOS: 19.5% of attempts, 83.5% completion rate, 3.4 yards/attempt
- 0-9: 40.3% of attempts, 77.8% completion rate, 6.2 yards/attempt
- 10-19: 24.7% of attempts, 54.6% completion rate, 10.5 yards/attempt
- 20+: 11.0% of attempts, 31.3% completion rate, 10.1 yards/attempt
Analysis: We see the difference between where Pribula is more effective than Morris was a year ago.
At the top level, it would appear that he’s better at the long handoffs – the passes behind the line of scrimmage (26-of-28, 178 yards, 117.0 NFL passer rating) than Morris was (71-of-85, 289 yards).
Diving into those numbers:
- Morris suffered from having 10 drops on those behind the line pass attempts
- Pribula, to this point in 2026: two drops on behind the line pass attempts
Adjusted for drops:
- Pribula adjusted behind LOS completion rate: 100%
- Morris adjusted behind LOS completion rate: 95.3%
The difference between the two on 0-9 throws is also drops:
- 3 of Pribula’s 14 incompletions in the 0-9 area were drops
- 11 of Morris’ 39 incompletions in the 0-9 area were drops
Adjusting for drops:
- Pribula adjusted 0-9 completion rate: 86.1%
- Morris adjusted 0-9 completion rate: 84.1%
The big difference between the two is productivity in the intermediate range – 10-19 yards past the line of scrimmage.
Pribula has been hurt here by drops – four of his 19 incompletions in the 10-19 area were drops, meaning his adjusted completion rate there is 57.1%, compared to Morris’ 55.6% (just one drop in the 10-19 area).
Still, Morris went intermediate through the area 6 percent more of the time, and got 3.0 more yards per attempt on those throws.
I’ll ask again: this isn’t on the QB?
Pribula is more than three times more likely to be sacked, on a similar percentage of pressures.
That’s not the line’s fault.
The line is grading 73 spots better nationally this year for Pribula than what Morris played behind last year.
Reiterate: not the line.
The game plans and play-calling aren’t asking Pribula to attack much beyond the line of scrimmage, and when he does, he’s not as productive.
Where Pribula was reputed to be a bigger weapon was with his feet, but the gain there is negligible.
Pribula is being used more in the run game:
- Pribula: 54 designed runs/258 yards – 6.8 attempts/32.3 yards per game
- Morris: 28 designed runs/128 yards – 2.0 attempts/9.1 yards per game
But he’s a net liability under pressure:
- Pribula: 12 scrambles/83 yards, 24 sacks/153 yards, net: -70 yards (-8.8 yards per game)
- Morris: 27 scrambles/216 yards, 14 sacks/99 yards, net: +117 yards (+8.4 yards per game)
Bottom line
- Pribula is worth a net 23.5 yards per game with his feet.
- Morris: 17.5 yards per game.
- That’s a 6.0 yards per game difference in favor of Pribula.
- Morris, through the air, averaged 214.3 yards per game.
- Pribula: 171.1 yards per game through the air.
- That’s a 43.2 yards per game difference in favor of Morris.
But keep doing the same thing over and over.
Share
Chris Graham
