Virginia is 3-0 in the ACC for the first time since 2007, 5-1 for the first time since 2017, ranked for the first time since 2019.
The bye week splits the second neatly into two, giving a writer like me a good excuse to look ahead at the second-half schedule, and license to try to prognosticate how things might play out.
Also: there’s no material from press conferences to use to fill up the column inches.
We need content, basically.
Oct. 18: Washington State (3-2)
ESPN Analytics: UVA 95.2 percent win probability
Washington State gave up 59 points in back-to-back losses to North Texas and Washington in Weeks 3 and 4 before rebounding with a 20-3 win over one-win Colorado State in Week 5.
The Cougars are coming off a bye week, which should help with the cross-country travel.
Oct. 25: at North Carolina (2-3, 0-1 ACC)
ESPN Analytics: UVA 87.1 percent win probability
Will Bill Belichick still be around for this one? Probably.
UNC gets a chance to get back on track next week at Cal, late on a Friday night.
They’ll likely be 2-4, 0-2 coming into our game in two weeks.
Nov. 1: at Cal (4-2, 1-1 ACC)
ESPN Analytics: UVA 72.4 percent win probability
The true freshman QB, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele – say that one time fast – is putting up good numbers (1,487 yards, nine TDs) for a young’un.
Cal beat Minnesota at home and Boston College on the road.
Nov. 8: Wake Forest (3-2, 1-2 ACC)
ESPN Analytics: UVA 85.9 percent win probability
Hey, Wake won the road in Blacksburg, which Virginia hasn’t done since 1998, and played well in losses to NC State and Georgia Tech.
Nov. 15: at Duke (4-2, 3-0 ACC)
ESPN Analytics: Duke 58.5 percent win probability
The big one. If things play out as expected, these two could be playing for a spot in Charlotte.
I wonder how much of the win probability is home-field advantage that isn’t really a factor at Duke.
We’ll probably have more fans there than they will.
Nov. 29: Virginia Tech (2-4, 1-1 ACC)
ESPN Analytics: UVA 81.8 percent win probability
I don’t care about the win probability, the records, the rest.
It’s Tech.
You will not feel good going into this one.
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Chris Graham
