UVA Basketball: NCAA Tournament resume update after 2-0 week

Two road wins this week for Virginia (18-3, 7-2 ACC), which is now 6-1 on the road on the season.

They weren’t convincing, meaning, the fan base is concerned – they wouldn’t be UVA Basketball fans if they weren’t concerned about something.

Quoting Hunter S. Thompson: “There is no such thing as paranoia. Your worst fears can come true at any moment.”

Resume

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Quad 1: 4-2
Quad 2: 4-1
Quad 3-4: 10-0

Key

Quad 1: Home (1-30), Neutral (1-50), Away (1-75)
Quad 2: Home (31-75), Neutral (51-100), Away (76-135)

Metrics

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Topline

• ELO: 17
• NET: 18
• RPI: 26

Result-based

• KPI: 14
• SOR: 15
• WAB: 16

Predictive

• KenPom: 18
• BartTorvik: 18
• BPI: 26

Average: 18.7
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 4/5 seed line

Key remaining games

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• Quad 2: @Florida State (10-12, 3-6 ACC, NET: 102), Feb. 10
• Quad 1: (neutral court) Ohio State (14-7, 6-5 Big Ten, NET: 40), Feb. 14
• Quad 2: Miami (17-5, 6-3 ACC, NET: 39), Feb. 21
• Quad 1: NC State (16-6, 7-2 ACC, NET: 26), Feb. 24
• Quad 1: @Duke (20-1, 9-0 ACC, NET: 2), Feb. 28
• Quad 2: Wake Forest (11-11, 2-7 ACC, NET: 70), March 3
• Quad 2: Virginia Tech (16-7, 5-5 ACC, NET: 56), March 7

Previous games to watch for Quad 1/2 movement

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• Butler (80-73 L, Nov. 23): currently 64 in NET (Quad 2 loss now; becomes Quad 1 loss if Butler moves into Top 50)
• Stanford (70-55 W, Jan. 10): currently 78 in NET (Quad 3 win now; becomes Quad 2 if Stanford moves into Top 75)
• Notre Dame (100-97 W, Jan. 27): currently 85 in NET (Quad 2 win now; becomes Quad 1 if Notre Dame moves into Top 75)