Miami hasn’t been to an NCAA Tournament since 2018, mainly because Jim Larranaga’s program keeps finding itself beset by season-ending injuries to key guys.
The flip side to that is that, because of those season-ending injuries in previous years, this year’s squad has three sixth-year seniors – Kameron McGusty, Charlie Moore and Sam Waardenburg – in Larranaga’s eight-ish-man rotation.
Not coincidentally, the three old guys, each who began their college careers in 2016-2017, back when Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome were freshman, and De’Andre Hunter was a redshirt – are the foundation of Miami’s success this season.
An aside here: Moore, as a freshman at Cal, had seven points in 28 minutes in the Bears’ 56-52 loss in JPJ on Dec. 21, 2016, on a night that saw Guy lead the ‘Hoos with 17.
That’s … so long ago.
Guy, Jerome and Hunter are third-year NBA guys now. Mamadi Diakite, a redshirt freshman back in December 2016 who had four points and three boards off the bench in that game, is a second-year NBA guy with an championship ring.
Wow.
Back to where we were: veteran guys, big help for Miami this season.
Miami rotation
McGusty, a 6’5” small forward, is one of three ‘Canes averaging double digits in scoring – 17.5 points per game, 5.9 rebounds per game, 46.7 percent from the floor, 34.7 percent from three.
McGusty rates excellent on spot-ups, per Synergy Sports, shooting 48.1 percent, with a 61.1 percent adjusted field goal rate, on his 100 usages (1.240 points per possession).
He’s also excellent on pick-and-rolls (68 usages, 45.1% FG, 47.1% AFG, 1.000 PPP) as the ball-handler.
6’3” sophomore guard Isaiah Wong (16.1 ppg, 46.4% FG, 32.3% 3FG) gets a lot of looks in spot-ups (89 usages), but rates as average (34.6% FG, 41.4% AFG, .865 PPP) there.
Need to keep an eye on Wong in transition (43 usages, 63.6% FG, 69.7% AFG, 1.302 PPP), in isolations (37 usages, 57.7% FG, 65.4% AFG, 1.135 PPP), hand-offs (42 usages, 37.8% FG, 41.9% AFG, .929 PPP) and as the ball-handler on pick-and-rolls (85 usages, 44.1% FG, 47.8% AFG, .918 PPP).
Moore, a 5’11” point guard, is the other double-digit scorer (12.5 ppg, 4.0 assists/g, 44.0% FG, 38.6% 3FG).
Moore is also adept on spot-ups (87 usages, 41.8% FG, 54.4% AFG, 1.011 PPP) and gets a lot of touches in transition (74 usages, 49.1% FG, 55.3% AFG, .986 PPP) and pick-and-rolls (64 usages, 46.2% FG, 51.9% AFG, .859 PPP).
Jordan Miller (9.0 ppg, 5.9 rebounds/g, 50.3% FG, 33.9% 3FG) is a bit undersized at the four spot (6’7”, 195), but he can make opponents pay as a stretch four in spot-ups (69 usages, 40.0% FG, 53.1% AFG, 1.014 PPP), and needs to be accounted for on cuts in the lane (31 usages, 70.4% FG/AFG, 1.355 PPP), post-ups (14 usages, 63.6% FG/AFG, 1.214 PPP) and offensive rebounds (23 usages, 70.6% FG/AFG, 1.391 PPP).
Waardenburg, a 6’10” center, is a tough matchup as a stretch five (7.9 ppg, 3.6 rebounds/g, 53.3% FG, 46.0% 3FG). He doesn’t shoot the ball a lot (5.3 FGAs/g), but you have to account for him on spot-ups (43 usages, 41.0% FG, 53.8% AFG, 1.047 PPP) and especially on pick-and-pops (32 usages, 72.0% FG, 90.0% AFG, 1.438 PPP).
Larranaga goes with his starters for a ton of his minutes – 79.3 percent, ranking 10th nationally.
The bench guys: 6’9” sophomore Anthony Walker (5.4 ppg, 14.8 minutes/g, 43.4% FG, 33.3% 3FG), 6’5” sophomore Wooga Poplar (3.1 ppg, 9.5 minutes/g, 43.4% FG, 18.2% 3FG) and 6’1” freshman Bensley Joseph (2.8 ppg, 13.1 minutes/g, 42.5% FG, 59.1% 3FG).
Matchups with Virginia
Miami is shooting 40.4 percent from three-point range in ACC play, and making an average of 9.2 threes per contest.
Shooting the three well, and often, is the best way to beat Virginia’s Pack Line – UVA’s ACC opponents are shooting 38.4 percent from bonus-land and sinking an average of 8.0 triples per game.
A key here will be how Virginia’s bigs, 7’1” junior Francisco Caffaro (4.5 ppg, 4.2 rebounds/g, 51.5% FG) and 6’11” sophomore Kadin Shedrick (6.6 ppg, 5.2 rebounds/g, 2.5 blocks/g, 58.9% FG) defend Waardenburg on pick-and-rolls.
The Pack Line requires bigs to double on pick-and-rolls to try to get the ball out of the dribbler’s hands, then scramble back to their guy in the lane or on the perimeter.
Miami will test Virginia early and often here with Waardenburg.
UVA power forward Jayden Gardner (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rebounds/g, 51.9% FG) has a size and strength advantage on Miller at the four spot that coach Tony Bennett will want to try to exploit early, to force a response in terms of approach from Larranaga.
Reece Beekman (7.9 ppg, 4.9 assists/g, 43.3% FG, 33.3% 3FG) gets the assignment on defense on Wong, and it should be a fun game-within-the-game, as should the matchup at the three spot between Armaan Franklin (11.8 ppg, 41.1% FG, 26.3% 3FG) and McGusty.
Kihei Clark (9.8 ppg, 4.0 assists/g, 40.7% FG, 38.0% 3FG) is the canary in the coal mine for Virginia. Of late, he’s been good – averaging 15.3 points and 3.7 assists, shooting 48.3 percent from the floor over his last three games.
Story by Chris Graham
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