Game Details
- NC State (20-12, 9-10 ACC, NET: 55) vs. Virginia (27-4, 15-3 ACC, NET: 13)
- Day/Time: Thursday, noon ET
- TV: ESPN
Forecast
- KenPom: Virginia 79-75
- BartTorvik: Virginia 78-74
NC State rotation
- 6’6” senior Darrion Williams: 14.0 ppg, 4.8 rebounds/g, 41.2% FG, 38.8% 3FG
- 6’6” senior Qadir Copeland: 13.7 ppg, 6.6 assists/g, 49.6% FG, 40.4% 3FG, 5.3 FTAs/g
- 6’9” senior Ven-Allen Lubin: 13.7 ppg, 7.1 rebounds/g, 68.4% FG, 27.3% 3FG
- 6’5” sophomore Paul McNeil: 13.5 ppg, 42.9% FG, 41./9% 3FG
- 6’2” senior Tre Holloman: 9.3 ppg, 42.0% FG, 39.8% 3FG
- 6’6” freshman Matt Abel: 8.8 ppg, 41.4% FG, 35.4% 3FG
Virginia rotation
- 6’9” freshman Thijs de Ridder: 15.9 ppg, 6.3 rebounds/g, 51.3% FG, 34.1% 3FG
- 6’5” senior Malik Thomas: 12.1 ppg, 4.1 rebounds/g, 40.6% FG, 33.9% 3FG
- 6’6” junior Sam Lewis: 10.4 ppg, 3.6 rebounds/g, 45.0% FG, 36.9% 3FG
- 5’10” freshman Chance Mallory: 9.6 ppg, 3.8 rebounds/g, 3.5 assists/g, 43.3% FG, 34.3% 3FG
- 6’3” senior Jacari White: 8.9 ppg, 45.0% FG, 43.4% 3FG
- 7’0” freshman Johann Grunloh: 7.7 ppg, 5.5 rebounds/g, 2.4 blocks/g, 52.9% FG, 35.0% 3FG
- 7’0” senior Ugonna Onyenso: 6.4 ppg, 4.9 rebounds/g, 2.6 blocks/g, 54.9% FG, 28.1% 3FG
- 6’4” senior Dallin Hall: 5.9 ppg, 4.3 assists/g, 42.1% FG, 34.1% 3FG
- 6’7” senior Devin Tillis: 4.8 ppg, 40.8% FG, 38.3% 3FG
Analytics: NC State vs. UVA
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Virginia offense: 1.217 PPP (34)
NC State defense: 1.047 PPP (84)
NC State offense: 1.244 PPP (18)
Virginia defense: 0.965 PPP (16)
Rebounds
Offensive-Virginia: 38.2% (6)
Defensive-NC State: 69.6% (184)
Offensive-NC State: 28.5% (253)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.3% (96)
Turnover rate
Virginia offense: 15.9% (132)
NC State defense: 18.3% (90)
NC State offense: 13.1% (7)
Virginia defense: 15.8% (236)
Shooting zones-Virginia offense vs. NC State defense
Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics
Virginia in the paint: 16.5/29.1, 56.8%
Virginia threes: 10.1/28.5, 35.5%
Virginia FTs: 20.6 FTA/g, 71.8%
NC State in the paint: 15.1/27.5, 54.9%
NC State threes: 9.2/26.4, 35.0%
NC State FTs: 21.4 FTA/g
Shooting zones-NC State offense vs. Virginia defense
Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics
NC State in the paint: 16.8/29.6, 56.8%
NC State threes: 10.3/27.0, 38.0%
NC State FTs: 21.1 FTA/g, 76.0%
Virginia in the paint: 13.8/28.9, 47.7%
Virginia threes: 6.8/22.2, 30.5%
Virginia FTs: 19.5 FTA/g
Game Coverage
Media timeout: NC State 9-5, 16:00/1st
NC State has totally shut off the lane for dribble penetration and post feeds.
On the other end, they’re getting what they want in the post, and the made three came on a dribble drive and kickout.
Not a good start.
Media timeout: NC State 16-13, 11:56/1st
Better offense. The Jacari White three was on a pass back out on dribble penetration on a secondary break.
Good pass to a cutting Ugonna Onyenso on another break.
Defense still not cutting it: State is 5-of-9 from the floor, 2-of-3 from three.
Need to close the gaps that they’re exploiting.
Media timeout: NC State 24-22, 8:00/1st
Virginia doesn’t have an offensive rebound, and has five turnovers.
The offensive rebounding has been neutralized quite a bit the past 10 games or so.
That’s teams crashing the boards with an extra guy, and limiting themselves in transition.
Media timeout: Virginia 28-27, 3:46/1st
Better work on the defensive end, largely due to Onyenso, who has three blocks and a steal, and has altered or prevented other shots.
Officially two offensive rebounds, but one is a deadball rebound.
Half: Virginia 33, NC State 32
Not a bad halfway result, considering.
State had its way on offense early: 7-of-12 in the first 10 minutes.
Virginia held the Pack to 4-of-14 shooting in the final 10 minutes of the half.
Ugonna Onyenso was great; after Johann Grunloh went to the bench with two early fouls, Onyenso had four points, four boards and four blocks in 16 minutes.
Media timeout: Virginia 44-40, 15:33/2nd
Grunloh picked up his third foul 24 seconds in, getting Onyenso back in.
He has a bucket and a blocked shot since subbing in.
Offense is 4-of-6 with a pair of threes (and no TOs) early.
NC State timeout: Virginia 55-45, 11;46/2nd
Virginia on a 9-0 run, forcing a Will Wade timeout.
Danger zone time for the Pack.
UVA is 9-of-13 from the field and 3-of-5 from three in the second half.
Media timeout: Virginia 63-53, 7:33/2nd
Next four minutes are big for both sides. Virginia can put the game away; State needs to cut into the margin by a bucket or two.
It’s feeling like this one is where it’s going to be.
Media timeout: Virginia 70-61, 3:27/2nd
Ugonna Onyenso for Congress: eight points, six rebounds, seven blocks.
State is 9-of-18 from three, so they’re not out of it yet.
They do look tired, but curiously on that point, only on the defensive end.
Final: Virginia 81, NC State 74
Reminder: Ugonna Onyenso was NOT the ACC Defensive Player of the Year.
Wonder how many games the Duke kid who got the award won on his own?
Onyenso had eight blocked shots, and was a key reason State was 5-of-22 on shots at the rim.
That is all.
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Chris Graham
